ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 00:28:39Inconclusive
aitecheconomy
The current AI innovation wave will persist as a major technological and economic cycle for multiple decades (at least 20 years) beyond 2025, rather than peaking and ending within a single decade.
we're really only a few years into what should be a multi-decade innovation cycle.View on YouTube
Explanation

As of November 30, 2025, only a few years have elapsed since the start of the current generative‑AI surge (late 2022–2023) and only a few months since Chamath’s August 2025 statement. His claim is explicitly about a “multi‑decade innovation cycle” (20+ years beyond 2025), so by definition it cannot yet be confirmed or definitively falsified.

Available evidence does show that the AI wave is still very active rather than clearly having peaked and ended:

  • Major AI companies remain among the world’s most valuable firms; for example, Alphabet’s market cap is nearing $4 trillion in late 2025, driven largely by AI products and infrastructure, following Nvidia’s earlier move into the $4T tier, both underpinned by heavy AI investment and demand. (reuters.com)
  • Reports on an “AI bubble” note corrections and fears (e.g., Nvidia’s sharp but temporary stock drop in early 2025 and widespread debate about ROI), yet they also highlight continued or even accelerating AI spending: global AI investment is projected in the trillions of dollars over the next several years, treating AI as a foundational technology rather than a short‑lived fad. (en.wikipedia.org)
  • Large international AI summits and conferences (e.g., the 2025 AI Action Summit in Paris and the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai) show sustained, system‑level commitment by governments and industry to long‑term AI development. (en.wikipedia.org)

However, these facts only show that the cycle is still underway in 2025; they do not prove it will persist for “multiple decades.” Likewise, while there is concern about bubbles and overvaluation, no decisive collapse has occurred that would prove the cycle will not last that long. Because the horizon of the prediction (20+ years beyond 2025) extends far into the future, there is simply not enough elapsed time to judge its ultimate accuracy.

Given that the key claim is about long‑term duration, and neither confirmation nor clear falsification is yet possible, the only defensible assessment as of 2025 is inconclusive (too early to tell).