ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 00:11:44Right
economymarkets
From April 2022 onward, the Federal Reserve will implement multiple 50-basis-point interest rate hikes, potentially including at least one 75-basis-point hike, and will increase the pace of quantitative tightening (to around $95B/month) until major US equity indices (e.g., S&P 500, Nasdaq) experience a substantial drawdown described as a market 'crack' or 'bloodletting' rather than continuing to hover near prior highs.
you're going to probably see, you know, a lot of 50s, maybe even a 75 point hike. You probably are going to see them, you know, even ratchet up quantitative tightening until there is a bit of a bloodletting in the equity market. They need to see that the market's cracked.View on YouTube
Explanation

Key elements of Chamath’s April 2022 prediction all occurred:

  • Multiple 50 bp and at least one 75 bp hike: After his comment, the Fed raised rates by 50 bps in May 2022 and again in December 2022, and delivered four consecutive 75 bps hikes in June, July, September, and November 2022.(forbes.com) This matches “a lot of 50s, maybe even a 75 point hike.”

  • Quantitative tightening ramped to about $95B/month: In May 2022 the Fed formally adopted its balance-sheet reduction plan, with caps starting at $30B Treasuries and $17.5B MBS per month in June, rising after three months to $60B and $35B respectively—i.e., up to $95B/month in runoff.(federalreserve.gov) That is effectively the QT pace he described.

  • Major equity “crack” / bloodletting: From their pre-2022 highs, U.S. equities fell sharply as these hikes and QT proceeded. The S&P 500 dropped about 25.4% peak‑to‑trough in 2022 (4,796 on Jan 3, 2022 to 3,583 on Oct 12, 2022), and finished the year down 19.4%.(twitter.com) The Nasdaq Composite fell roughly 33–36% from its 2021 peak to its late‑2022 low and ended 2022 down about 33%.(statmuse.com) These are widely characterized as a bear market rather than “hovering near prior highs,” consistent with his notion of a market “crack” or “bloodletting.”

Although he slightly over-emphasized 50 bp moves relative to the (ultimately larger) sequence of 75 bp hikes, the substance of his forecast—that the Fed would aggressively hike (including 75s), ramp QT to roughly $95B/month, and persist until a major equity drawdown occurred—matches what actually happened. Therefore the prediction is best scored as right.