ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 01:36:35Inconclusive
venturetechai
Over the medium to long term, the traditional venture capital role and firm structure will be largely replaced by more automated, algorithmic systems that allocate many small investments (e.g., $100k–$500k) against specified objectives, with only later‑stage large checks remaining as a more conventional process.
I think there's a reasonable case to make that it doesn't exist. It's more of an automated system of capital against objectives.
Explanation

As of November 2025 (about two years after the podcast), traditional venture capital firms and roles clearly still dominate funding and decision‑making, so Chamath’s end‑state (traditional VC largely replaced by automated small‑check allocators) has not materialized yet. Major human‑run partnerships like Khosla Ventures and Menlo Ventures continue to raise multi‑billion‑dollar funds and operate with conventional GP/LP structures, and capital is consolidating into a smaller number of large, brand‑name firms rather than shifting to algorithmic platforms. (en.wikipedia.org)

At the same time, there is strong evidence of a directional move toward data‑ and AI‑driven VC, consistent with the spirit of his thesis but far short of replacement. The 2025 Data‑Driven VC Landscape maps 235 data‑driven VC firms and describes rapid growth in the use of AI, agents, and automation across sourcing, screening, and portfolio work, yet emphasizes that the future is "augmented, not automated": 94% of surveyed VCs expect a human‑in‑the‑loop model, not fully algorithmic “quant” VC. (datadrivenvc.io) Other analyses note that while many firms want to be more data‑driven and Gartner predicted that most executive reviews would be informed by AI by 2025, only a small fraction of firms were truly data‑driven as of 2023, and current commentary still talks about AI primarily as a support tool. (forbes.com) A few explicitly algorithmic funds (e.g., Rebel Fund, Correlation Ventures, Follow[the]Seed) exist but remain niche relative to the overall VC asset base. (rebelfund.vc)

Because Chamath framed this as a medium‑ to long‑term structural shift, and we are only ~2 years out, it is too early to say definitively whether traditional VC will eventually be “largely replaced” by automated, small‑check allocators. The current evidence shows meaningful movement toward more algorithmic and data‑driven practices, but not the kind of wholesale replacement he described. Therefore, the prediction is best classified as inconclusive (too early) rather than clearly right or wrong.