From Oct. 14, 2022 (podcast date) until the end of the Fed’s rate‑hike cycle on July 26, 2023, the Federal Reserve continued raising interest rates aggressively, from 3.0–3.25% in September 2022 up to 5.25–5.50% in July 2023. After July 2023, the Fed held rates steady and later began cutting them in December 2024 and again in 2025, so the period of “rates flexing up” effectively ended in mid‑2023. (forbes.com)

Looking at major conflicts and direct U.S./Western entry into new wars:

• The Russia–Ukraine war began Feb. 24, 2022, before the podcast, and Western involvement remained primarily via aid and arms, not as formal belligerents.
• The Israel–Hamas war (Gaza war) began with Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack and Israel’s declaration of war on October 8, 2023—months after the Fed stopped hiking. The U.S. and European allies backed Israel and provided extensive support but did not themselves declare war or become formal combatants. (loc.gov)
• Direct U.S./UK combat operations against Yemen’s Houthis (Operation Prosperity Guardian and subsequent US–UK airstrikes) began December 18, 2023 and January 12, 2024, again after the hiking phase had ended. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Large U.S. airstrikes alongside Israel on Iranian nuclear sites occurred June 22, 2025, well into an easing cycle, not during aggressive tightening. (time.com)

Under a straightforward reading of Chamath’s claim—“we will not enter a new war with rates flexing up as aggressively as they are”—the test period is when rates are actively being hiked. During that window (through July 2023) the U.S. and its Western allies did not enter a clearly new major war beyond ongoing support for Ukraine. Later new or escalated wars and direct interventions all began after the hiking phase had stopped.

Because no clear counterexample occurs while rates were still being raised aggressively, the prediction is best scored as right, though it becomes less meaningful once the hiking cycle ends and new wars start afterward.