Evidence shows that severe COVID‑19–related shutdowns of social and economic life extended far beyond two months from mid‑March 2020 in many parts of the world.

• National lockdowns exceeded two months in multiple countries. For example, India’s nationwide lockdown, begun in late March, was repeatedly extended and continued with major restrictions through at least 31 May 2020, already more than two months after late March. 【1search13】 New Zealand’s first nationwide lockdown ran from 26 March to 27 May 2020 (about two months), but the country then used further regional lockdowns in August–September 2020 and February–March 2021, plus a prolonged nationwide lockdown from August to December 2021. 【1search15】
• International travel and tourism remained effectively shut down well beyond mid‑May 2020. As of 20–27 April 2020, 100% of global destinations still had COVID‑19 travel restrictions in place, and no destination had yet lifted or eased them; about 72% had a complete stop on international tourism. 【0search8】【0search5】 These restrictions and border controls continued, in varying forms, through the rest of 2020 and into 2021.
• Lockdowns and strong restrictions recurred internationally through 2020–2021. The global survey of “COVID‑19 lockdowns by country” documents that many countries and regions (e.g., Australian states, European countries) re‑entered lockdowns or curfews multiple times in late 2020 and 2021, well beyond the initial two‑month window. 【1search12】
• Global economic and social activity remained dramatically depressed throughout 2020. In aviation alone, a key proxy for international social and economic activity, 2020 global passenger traffic (RPKs) fell 65.9% vs. 2019, with international traffic down 75.6%, and air connectivity more than halved. 【2search3】 This indicates that cross‑border travel and related social/economic activity were far from “re‑opened” after just two months.
• Policy trackers show sustained high stringency of restrictions. The Oxford COVID‑19 Government Response Tracker’s Stringency Index records generally high levels of closure and containment measures across many countries well past May 2020, reflecting that significant constraints on social and economic activity persisted globally through much of the year. 【0search6】【0search9】

Because large parts of the world remained under substantial restrictions, with key sectors like international travel, tourism, and large gatherings effectively suppressed for many months to years, the prediction that global economic and social activity would be “effectively shut down” for only about two months starting in mid‑March 2020 materially underestimated the duration of the disruption. Therefore, the prediction is wrong.