Evidence since late 2023 shows EU and U.S. regulators taking similarly aggressive, coordinated positions on large tech acquisitions alongside the UK CMA, matching the substance of Chamath’s prediction.

1. Adobe–Figma: EU follows CMA, U.S. DOJ aligned

   • On December 18, 2023 (10 days after the podcast), Adobe and Figma terminated their $20B merger, explicitly citing “no clear path to receive necessary regulatory approvals from the European Commission and the UK Competition and Markets Authority”.(en.wikipedia.org)
   • EU and UK regulators argued the deal would eliminate a key competitor and reduce innovation in interactive product‑design and creative‑software markets—essentially the same nascent‑competitor / innovation theory of harm the CMA had advanced.(theguardian.com)
   • In parallel, the U.S. DOJ had issued a second request and was reported to be preparing a lawsuit to block the deal on similar grounds, indicating substantive alignment even though the case never reached a U.S. court because Adobe abandoned the transaction.(goodwinlaw.com)
   • Later commentary on Figma’s IPO explicitly frames the outcome as a trustbuster win after intensive scrutiny in the U.S., UK, and EU.(reuters.com)

2. Amazon–iRobot: explicit EU–U.S. coordination against a Big Tech deal

   • Amazon’s $1.4B acquisition of iRobot was dropped in January 2024 after the European Commission’s in‑depth probe concluded the deal would allow Amazon to foreclose rival robot‑vacuum makers by degrading their access to Amazon’s marketplace, and Amazon said the deal had “no path” to EU approval.(en.wikipedia.org)
   • Reuters and related reporting note that the FTC was poised to reject the deal as well, and a U.S. lawmaker opened an investigation into the FTC’s “work with the European Commission” in the collapse of the merger—direct evidence of cross‑Atlantic coordination against a large tech acquisition.(reuters.com)

3. Broader pattern: large tech and digital M&A increasingly blocked or reshaped by EU/UK/US in concert

   • A 2024 global merger‑control review finds that tech deals account for a disproportionate share of blocked or frustrated transactions, with antitrust intervention in the tech sector rising and the number of frustrated tech deals tripling year‑on‑year. Examples include: EC’s prohibition of Booking/eTraveli; CMA’s block-and‑restructure approach to Microsoft/Activision; Adobe–Figma abandoned due to EU/UK concerns; and Amazon–iRobot terminated after the EC looked poised to block it.(aoshearman.com)
   • These analyses explicitly describe authorities “ramping up” enforcement on digital/tech M&A and frustrated multi‑jurisdiction deals where firms withdraw rather than face likely prohibition—exactly the sort of “regulatory resistance” Chamath described.(aoshearman.com)

4. Demonstrated multi‑agency coordination on tech and adjacent deals

   • In 2025, the FTC’s Synopsys/Ansys decision states that FTC staff “cooperated closely” with competition agencies in the EU, UK, Japan, and South Korea on the analysis and remedies for that $35B semiconductor‑software merger, and contemporaneous commentary highlights multi‑authority coordination on timing and global remedies.(ftc.gov)
   • Earlier and continuing cases (e.g., Nvidia/Arm) show the FTC working “closely” with EU and UK authorities on tech mergers, reinforcing that such cross‑border coordination is now standard practice, especially for large tech or chip‑related transactions.(ftc.gov)

5. U.S. regulators adopting similar theories of harm, even when courts push back

   • In Microsoft–Activision, the FTC pursued theories about foreclosure and harms to cloud‑gaming and multi‑platform access that substantially overlapped with UK and EU concerns, even though it ultimately lost in U.S. courts and dropped the case in 2025.(en.wikipedia.org)
   • The fact that U.S. courts sometimes reject FTC challenges doesn’t negate the prediction, which focused on regulators’ positions and coordinated resistance, not guaranteed courtroom victories.

Taken together, post‑December‑2023 developments show:

• The EU clearly moving in tandem with the UK CMA on major tech deals such as Adobe–Figma and Amazon–iRobot.(apnews.com)
• The FTC/DOJ adopting similar nascent‑competition and foreclosure theories and actively collaborating with EU/UK peers on large technology and adjacent deals.(goodwinlaw.com)
• A broader, well‑documented pattern of coordinated, increasingly skeptical review of large tech acquisitions over the subsequent years, which has led to multiple high‑profile deals being blocked, restructured, or abandoned.

That combination matches the essence of Chamath’s forecast that, following the CMA’s aggressive stance, the EU and U.S. agencies would align in reasoning and act in a coordinated way to resist large tech acquisitions in the near term.