ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 01:23:21Inconclusive
venturemarkets
For the cohort of roughly 1,400 "unicorn" startups existing as of mid‑2023, approximately 60% will ultimately go to zero; of the remaining 40%, about half will merely return invested capital, and about half of the remainder will return around 1.5x, yielding an overall blended multiple on invested capital for that unicorn cohort of roughly 1.1x once all outcomes are realized.
I think 60% go to zero. Of the remaining 40%, half of them probably return money. And then of the remaining half, half of those maybe get one and a half x. And then you get a geometric distribution from there, which means the blended return of that entire stream of unicorns will be about 1.1 x, but it will be very massively distributed.View on YouTube
Explanation

Chamath’s prediction is explicitly about ultimate outcomes for the ~1,400 unicorn startups existing around mid‑2023: what fraction will eventually go to zero, how many will just return capital, and the final blended multiple on invested capital (MOIC) once all is realized. That requires waiting until most of that cohort has either exited (IPO/M&A), been written down to near‑zero, or liquidated.

As of late 2025, that has clearly not happened yet. Crunchbase data shows a persistent "unicorn backlog": its Unicorn Board is close to 1,600 active unicorns, with only around 40 having dropped off the list through closure or down‑rounds since 2022, meaning the vast majority remain private and unliquidated. (news.crunchbase.com) TechCrunch notes that in the most recent decade only about 7% of unicorns have exited, versus 66% in the prior decade, illustrating how few outcomes have actually been crystallized. (techcrunch.com) Other analyses likewise emphasize that exits are scarce and the unicorn ranks remain swollen, not yet worked through via IPOs, acquisitions, or failures. (news.crunchbase.com)

Because most of the mid‑2023 unicorn cohort is still alive on paper, with slow exit markets and limited formal write‑offs, we do not yet observe whether ~60% will “go to zero,” how many will merely return capital, or whether the final blended MOIC for that cohort will approximate 1.1x. There is no comprehensive dataset today that could credibly fix those eventual portfolio‑level results. For that reason, the prediction’s accuracy cannot be determined yet, even though we have partial signals about valuations and fundraising conditions.