We are in a debt spiral. That is a feature, not a bug, of how democratic societies work... The first time the United States went past 100%, we thought it was the end of the world. It turned out it wasn't. We'll will eventually go past 200... Then we'll get to 300%. We'll keep moving forward.View on YouTube
As of 30 November 2025, the U.S. federal debt‑to‑GDP ratio is well below 200%, let alone 300%. Recent estimates put U.S. federal debt held by the public at roughly 97–100% of GDP, and gross federal debt (including intragovernmental holdings) around 120–130% of GDP, depending on the exact measure and source used, but in all cases clearly under 200%.
Since Chamath’s prediction explicitly describes a future in which U.S. debt‑to‑GDP eventually exceeds 200% and then 300% without causing systemic collapse, the key conditions (surpassing those levels) have not yet occurred, and there is no specified deadline by which they must occur. Therefore, there isn’t enough information yet to determine whether the prediction will ultimately be right or wrong.
Because:
- The debt ratio has not exceeded 200% as of late 2025, and
- The prediction is open‑ended in time ("we’ll eventually go past 200… then 300%"),
the correct evaluation today is that it’s too early to tell whether the prediction will come true.