Chamath’s prediction bundled three related claims for conditions by mid‑2024: (1) Fed rate cuts would have begun, (2) inflation would be largely behind us, and (3) the U.S. would achieve a soft landing (slowing growth without recession).

1. Fed rate‑cut timing (clearly wrong)
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 5.25–5.50% at its June 12, 2024 meeting, indicating no cuts yet that year. (wolfstreet.com) It again left rates unchanged at 5.25–5.50% at the July 31, 2024 meeting, only hinting that a cut might come as soon as September. (en.people.cn) The first actual cut of this cycle came later, on September 18, 2024, when the FOMC reduced the target range by 50 bps to 4.75–5.00%. (cnbc.com) So by mid‑2024 (around June), the Fed had not begun cutting rates, contradicting his explicit timeline that “rates are going to get cut by the middle part of the year.”

2. Inflation mostly in the “rear‑view mirror” (broadly right)
By mid‑2024, inflation had fallen sharply from its 2022 peak (~9% CPI) and was running in the mid‑2% to low‑3% range year‑over‑year:

• June 2024 PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred gauge) was 2.5% YoY, with core PCE at 2.6%. (equiti.com)
• July 2024 CPI fell below 3% for the first time since early 2021: headline CPI 2.9% YoY and core CPI 3.2%. (ft.com)
  While inflation was still modestly above the Fed’s 2% target, it was far below its peak and broadly seen as having cooled substantially. In that sense, describing inflation as largely in the “rear‑view mirror” is a reasonable qualitative characterization.

3. Soft landing / no recession (so far, essentially right)
The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee continues to list February 2020 as the most recent peak and April 2020 as the most recent trough, with no new recession dated after the pandemic downturn. (nber.org) Forecasts and official commentary for 2024–2025 describe positive but slowing growth rather than a contraction: the OECD, for example, estimates U.S. real GDP growth at 2.8% in 2024 and a slower but still positive 1.8% in 2025. (investopedia.com) As of late 2025, U.S. officials explicitly state that the overall economy has avoided recession, despite sector‑specific weakness. (reuters.com) This is broadly consistent with a “soft landing” rather than a hard recession.

Overall judgment
Although Chamath was directionally right that inflation would cool and that the U.S. could avoid a recession, his prediction hinged on a concrete timing call that the Fed would start cutting rates by mid‑2024. In reality, the first cut didn’t occur until September 18, 2024, well after that window. (cnbc.com) Because this key, time‑specific component was clearly wrong, the combined prediction is best classified as wrong, even though some qualitative aspects (cooling inflation and a soft landing) turned out broadly accurate.