Chamath made the prediction in mid‑July 2021 that Virgin Galactic would be “starting commercial ops” in the “next 2 or 3 quarters,” implying a start roughly by mid‑2022.

In reality, Virgin Galactic had not begun commercial passenger operations by mid‑2022. In October 2021 the company updated guidance to target commercial service in Q4 2022, already outside the 2–3 quarter window. (space.com) In May 2022 it further delayed commercial passenger service to the first quarter of 2023. (space.com)

Virgin Galactic ultimately announced the start of commercial spaceflight service on June 15, 2023, stating that its first commercial revenue‑generating mission, Galactic 01, would fly in a June 27–30 window, and this mission flew on June 29, 2023 as the company’s inaugural commercial spaceflight. (virgin.com) Since commercial operations began about two years after the prediction—well beyond the forecasted 2–3 fiscal quarters—the prediction did not come true.