It is too early to determine whether this prediction is right or wrong. The prediction concerns actual U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), specifically that implementation will get the U.S. to about a 40% reduction relative to the baseline target policymakers use (i.e., roughly 40% below 2005 levels vs. the official 50–52% target).

As of November 30, 2025, the year 2030 is still five years in the future, so realized 2030 emissions are unknown. Current analyses (e.g., from Rhodium Group and Princeton REPEAT) project that the IRA could reduce U.S. emissions to roughly 32–42% below 2005 levels by 2030, but those are model projections, not observed outcomes, and are sensitive to implementation details, future regulations, technology costs, and economic conditions. Because the prediction is about what will actually happen by 2030, not what models forecast in advance, it cannot yet be definitively judged.

Therefore, the correct status today is “inconclusive (too early)”.