Evidence from the 6–9 months after November 12, 2022 shows both that (a) the macro developments Chamath highlighted largely occurred and (b) major risk assets delivered substantial upside from then-depressed levels.

1. Macro backdrop evolved as he described

• Disinflation: U.S. headline CPI peaked at 9.1% year‑over‑year in June 2022 and fell to about 3% by June 2023, the lowest since early 2021, reflecting clear disinflation over the period he was talking about. (jpmorgan.com)
• Policy gridlock: The 2022 U.S. midterms produced a divided government: Republicans captured the House while Democrats retained the Senate, creating exactly the kind of legislative gridlock he referenced from January 2023 onward. (en.wikipedia.org)
• China reopening: China abruptly exited its zero‑Covid policy in December 2022 and senior officials were describing the economy as “back to normal” by early 2023, consistent with his “China reopening” thesis. (forbes.com)
• Progress in Ukraine: Ukraine’s Kherson counteroffensive culminated in the liberation of Kherson on November 9–11, 2022, widely seen as a major Ukrainian success and blow to Russia, matching the “progress in Ukraine” point he cited. (en.wikipedia.org)

2. Risk assets did show notable upside over the next 6–9 months

• S&P 500: The index closed at about 3,992.93 on November 11, 2022, just as he was speaking. By August 11, 2023 it was around 4,464.05, an increase of roughly 12% over nine months. (statmuse.com) By May 12, 2023 (about six months later), it was 4,124.08, modestly higher than his starting point and up 7.4% year‑to‑date from the 2022 close, indicating a gradual grind higher as disinflation took hold. (wellergroupllc.com)
• Nasdaq Composite: The Nasdaq ended 2022 at 10,466.48 and had risen to 12,284.74 by May 12, 2023 (+17.4% YTD), then to 13,737.99 by August 10–11, 2023 (roughly +31% vs the 2022 close and more than +20% vs early‑November levels). (wellergroupllc.com) This is the sort of “upside for risk assets” he was pointing to.
• Bitcoin (higher‑beta risk asset): Bitcoin was around $17,043 on November 11, 2022 (right after the FTX collapse), and about $27,042 on May 11, 2023—roughly a 59% gain in six months, with prices generally in the high‑20Ks around mid‑2023. (statmuse.com) This is strong upside from the stressed conditions prevailing when he made the call.

3. Alignment with his qualitative claim Chamath’s prediction was directional and relative: that a cluster of macro positives (disinflation, gridlock, China reopening, progress in Ukraine, etc.) created more upside for risk assets over the next 6–9 months than markets were pricing in at that panic point in late 2022.

Looking back:

• The macro factors he listed did materialize to a significant degree.
• From the date of the podcast through mid‑ to late‑2023, major risk assets (equities, especially tech, and Bitcoin) rose substantially from their November 2022 levels, with double‑digit gains in broad indices and much larger gains in higher‑beta assets.

While we can’t measure “what was priced in” with precision, the combination of realized macro improvements and sizable positive returns in risk assets over the stated 6–9 month window is strong evidence that his high‑level call—that there was meaningful upside potential from those late‑2022 levels—was broadly correct.