Chamath @ 01:01:05Wrong
markets
The equity-market drawdown that began in late February 2020 will not bottom within the first month; instead, the market bottom will occur roughly 200–250 days into the decline, i.e., around September–October 2020.
Travel travel is an 8.8 trillion, $9 trillion economy... when you see drawdowns like this in the stock market... The bottom isn't put in 20 days into a drawdown like this, right? It doesn't happen on day 20... The bottom comes in somewhere between day 200 and day 250. What that means is that September to October
Explanation
Chamath argued that in a drawdown of this magnitude, the equity market bottom would not be set within ~20 days, but instead around day 200–250, which he mapped to September–October 2020.
In reality, the major U.S. equity indices peaked in mid‑February 2020 and bottomed just over a month later:
- The S&P 500 closed at a then‑record high of 3,386.15 on February 19, 2020, then fell 34% over the next 33 calendar days, reaching a closing low of 2,237.40 on March 23, 2020.(marottaonmoney.com)
- Analyses of the COVID‑19 bear market consistently identify March 23, 2020 as the trough of that crash, after which the S&P 500 began a sustained recovery and ultimately reclaimed and surpassed its prior high.(pbs.org)
Thus, the COVID‑19 equity drawdown bottomed roughly one month after the peak, not 200–250 days later in September–October 2020. The specific timing component of Chamath’s prediction was therefore incorrect.