Multiple independent market commentaries identify mid‑October 2022 as the bear‑market low for U.S. equities, with the S&P 500’s trough around October 12–13, 2022. LPL Research and others explicitly mark October 12–13, 2022 as the end of the 2022 bear market and the start of a new bull market, with the S&P 500 bottoming near 3,577–3,490 at that time.(lpl.com) Subsequent retrospectives in 2024–2025 likewise describe that October 2022 low as the bottom of the last bear market and note that the major U.S. indices have risen substantially—on the order of 60–90% total return—from those levels, without undercutting the October 2022 lows.(ameriprise.com)

Regarding how markets handled later inflation data: there were several hotter‑than‑expected reports after October 2022. For example, January 2023 PCE inflation came in above expectations and triggered a selloff, but the S&P 500’s decline was modest and far above the October 2022 bottom.(cnbc.com) Similarly, the August 2023 CPI report showed a larger‑than‑expected jump in headline inflation, yet equities were broadly flat to slightly positive by the close, with investors “largely shrugging off” the upside surprise.(forbes.com) Across 2023–2024, the pattern around such data releases was choppy trading and occasional pullbacks, but not a new bear‑market leg that broke the October 2022 lows; instead, the broader trend was a grinding recovery / bull market off that base.(lpl.com)

Chamath’s claim had two parts: (1) that by mid‑October 2022 the equity market had already put in a near‑term bottom and was in consolidation, and (2) that subsequent bad inflation news would tend to be treated as “already priced in,” leading more to dip‑buying and volatile consolidation than to fresh lows. Given that the major U.S. indices have not broken their October 2022 lows through late 2025 and that hotter inflation prints produced volatility and short‑term setbacks rather than a new bear‑market bottom, the prediction matches what actually happened.