Chamath claimed that for the three mothballed but restartable U.S. nuclear reactors, the earliest realistic restart dates would be in the 2027–2030 range.

Evidence since then shows this is false:

• Palisades (Michigan), a shuttered commercial reactor regarded as the first U.S. attempt to restart a decommissioned plant, secured a $1.5+ billion DOE loan and state support with a publicly stated target of late 2025 for restart. This target was already on record well before and around the time of the May 31, 2025 podcast.(greatlakesnow.org)
• NRC approvals in July 2025 allowed Holtec to begin preparing Palisades for restart and loading fuel, with reporting that Holtec aimed to bring the plant back online in the fourth quarter of 2025.(reuters.com)
• Palisades’ status changed from decommissioned to online on August 27, 2025, enabling the plant to receive fuel and return to power production in 2025, not 2027 or later.(en.wikipedia.org)

For the other two prominent restart projects:

• Three Mile Island Unit 1 (Pennsylvania) is being financed with a DOE loan and is targeted to resume operations around 2027, matching the lower bound of Chamath’s window.(apnews.com)
• Duane Arnold Energy Center (Iowa), which shut in 2020, is now slated to be revived by 2029 under a NextEra–Google deal.(ft.com)

However, Chamath’s statement was about the earliest realistic restart for the three restartable mothballed reactors being 2027–2030. Because Palisades has in fact restarted (or is effectively back online) in 2025, and that 2025 timeline was already the working plan at the time of his prediction, the claim that 2027 was the earliest realistic restart is not borne out.

Therefore, the prediction is wrong.