Chamath @ 01:15:24Wrong
economymarkets
By roughly 6–9 months after February 2025 (i.e., by November 2025), prevailing U.S. interest rates (Fed funds rate or equivalent benchmark) could be around 5.0–5.5%, remaining at or returning to that range despite prior expectations of rate cuts.
in totality, we have $10 trillion we need to finance in the next 6 to 9 months. So it could be the case that we have rates that are like five, five and a quarter, 5.5%.View on YouTube
Explanation
Available data show that by roughly 6–9 months after February 2025 (August–November 2025), the U.S. federal funds rate target range was well below the 5.0–5.5% band Chamath speculated about.
Key facts:
- By late 2024, the FOMC had already cut the target range from its 5.25–5.50% peak (reached July–September 2023) down to 4.25–4.50%, and that range was still in place as of early February 2025. (federalreserve.gov)
- The Fed’s June 2025 Monetary Policy Report and contemporaneous analysis confirm that from January through June 2025 the federal funds target range was held at 4.25–4.50%, below 5%. (federalreserve.gov)
- On September 17, 2025, the FOMC cut the target range to 4.00–4.25%. (haver.com)
- On October 29, 2025, the Fed cut again, to 3.75–4.00%, where it remained through at least mid‑November 2025. (pcbb.com)
- Time‑series data summarizing the "federal funds target range – upper limit" show values of 4.50% on July 30, 2025, 4.25% on September 17, 2025, and 4.00% on October 29, 2025, with no return to 5% or higher during that period. (tradingeconomics.com)
Since during the relevant 6–9 month window (August–November 2025) the federal funds target range never was and did not return to the 5.0–5.5% region Chamath described, the prediction that rates in that timeframe could be around 5–5.5% (implying they would remain there or move back up to that range) turned out to be incorrect in light of actual policy outcomes.