Key observable outcomes by late 2025 contradict the core claim that standalone BNPL companies would not be viable as independent businesses, even though BNPL has indeed become a common feature inside larger platforms.

1. Large standalone BNPL firms remain viable, independent companies

• Affirm is still a publicly traded, independent BNPL-focused fintech. For the year ended June 30, 2025, it reported $3.22B in revenue and $52.2M in net income, with $36.7B GMV, $11.15B in assets, and $3.07B in equity, serving 24.1M consumers and 419k merchants. This is hard evidence of ongoing commercial viability as a standalone company, not merely a feature of someone else’s stack. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Klarna also remains independent and even went public in September 2025, raising about $1.37B in its IPO at an estimated $15B valuation, despite being down from its 2021 peak. (en.wikipedia.org) Its first post‑IPO earnings showed Q3 2025 revenue of $903M, strong GMV growth, and continued (but manageable) net losses of about $95M, indicating an ongoing standalone business rather than a failed “non‑company.” (barrons.com)
• Both firms are still framed in media and regulation as core BNPL providers, not just incidental features. The CFPB, for example, explicitly names Affirm and Klarna among lenders in the BNPL market as it extends credit‑card‑style protections to BNPL products. (cnbc.com)

These data points directly contradict the statement that BNPL "is not a company" and "has always been a feature"—at least two large BNPL specialists remain viable, scaled, independent public companies four years after the prediction.

2. Some consolidation occurred, partially supporting the “feature inside a platform” idea

• Afterpay, a major BNPL provider, was acquired by Square (now Block, Inc.) and fully became a subsidiary as of January 31, 2022, clearly turning one prominent BNPL player into a product line inside a larger payments ecosystem. (en.wikipedia.org)

This is directionally consistent with the idea that BNPL can end up as a feature of broader financial platforms—but it is one notable case, not the dominant fate of the major players.

3. BNPL has become a common embedded feature in big financial platforms

• PayPal offers BNPL options like Pay in 4 and Pay Monthly directly inside the PayPal wallet; to the user this is clearly a feature of a broader payments platform. (paypal.com)
• Apple killed its own Apple Pay Later BNPL product and instead integrated BNPL loans from third‑party providers (notably Affirm) and card issuers directly into Apple Pay checkout. Users now see installment options from Affirm and banks as checkout choices in Apple Pay, which is exactly BNPL presented as a feature of a large wallet ecosystem. (macrumors.com)
• Google Pay and Chrome embed Affirm’s BNPL functionality, and Google Pay is also adding Afterpay and Klarna; Samsung Wallet similarly added installment options powered by Splitit. BNPL in these contexts is clearly delivered as an integrated feature within big wallet/payment platforms. (docs.affirm.com)

So, the second half of the prediction—BNPL being widely delivered as a feature of larger financial platforms—has materialized to a significant extent.

4. Why this nets out as “wrong” rather than “right” or “ambiguous”

• The prediction wasn’t just that BNPL could also be a feature; it was that BNPL "is not a company" and that standalone BNPL players would not remain viable as independent businesses. The continued existence, growth, and in Affirm’s case profitability, and in Klarna’s case a fresh IPO, show that substantial value still resides in dedicated BNPL companies. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Even as these firms partner with Apple Pay, Google Pay, Samsung Wallet, and merchants like Walmart and DoorDash, they do so as separate corporate entities and brands, not as absorbed back‑end features owned by someone else. (investopedia.com)

Given that major BNPL specialists are still large, independent, and functioning businesses four years after the forecast—while BNPL has also become a common embedded feature—the central, strong claim that BNPL "is not a company" and would not be viable as an independent business is contradicted by the evidence. The prediction is therefore best evaluated as wrong overall, albeit with a partially correct insight about BNPL increasingly appearing as a feature within broader financial platforms.