We know that inflation is falling. It's going to fall even more. The second thing, Nick, the third chart here is you can see that now validated in these ten year breakevens... what it shows is the ten year break evens are also telling us, okay guys, we're going to be in a pretty decent place.
At the time of the podcast in mid‑November 2023, U.S. inflation was on a downward trend but still elevated: October 2023 CPI was 3.2% year‑over‑year with core around 4%, and the Fed’s preferred core PCE gauge was about 3.2% in November. (jpmorgan.com) Over the next six months the CPI measure actually ticked back up to about 3.5% by March–April 2024, so the disinflation path was bumpy, but core PCE fell from 3.2% in November 2023 to 2.6% by May 2024, its lowest level since 2021. (cnbc.com) By late 2024, inflation was clearly lower than at the time of the prediction: headline CPI was about 2.7% and core CPI 3.3% in November 2024, while headline PCE was 2.4% and core PCE 2.8%. (cnbc.com) Average annual CPI inflation also fell from about 4.1% in 2023 to about 2.9% in 2024, a material improvement in the overall inflation environment. (officialdata.org) Market-based inflation expectations, reflected in the 10‑year breakeven rate, hovered around 2.3% through 2024, consistent with a “pretty decent” medium‑term inflation outlook. (ycharts.com) Taken together, inflation did end up meaningfully lower and more benign 6–12 months out than when he spoke, even though it did not decline monotonically, so the spirit of Chamath’s prediction was essentially correct.