ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 01:18:30Right
economy
By the time of the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, the U.S. economy will not be in a recession and will instead be in a "reasonable" (i.e., non-recessionary, soft-landing-type) condition.
Now, if we were going to go into a November election where we were going to be in a recession, that's very bad for Biden. But sort of the tea leaves, for whatever it's worth, all the predictions, all the predictive markets show that we're going to be in a reasonable place.
Explanation

Evidence around the November 5, 2024 U.S. presidential election shows the U.S. economy was not in a recession and was broadly viewed as achieving or nearing a soft landing.

  • No official recession by late 2024: The National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee lists the most recent peak in U.S. economic activity as February 2020 and the trough as April 2020, with no subsequent peak/trough—and therefore no new recession—dated as of late 2025.(nber.org) That implies the economy was still in the expansion phase through the 2024 election.

  • Continued positive GDP growth in 2024: BEA data show real GDP grew 1.6% in Q1 2024, 3.0% in Q2, and about 2.8–3.1% in Q3 2024, all clearly positive growth rates.(apps.bea.gov) For the full year 2024, real GDP increased 2.8%, only slightly below 2023’s 2.9%, indicating a moderate but solid expansion rather than contraction.(apps.bea.gov)

  • Labor market still relatively strong: The unemployment rate was 4.1% in October 2024 and had ranged between 4.0% and 4.3% since May—low by historical standards.(bls.gov) In November 2024, the economy added about 227,000 jobs and unemployment was roughly 4.2%, consistent with a cooling but not collapsing labor market.(ft.com)

  • Contemporary characterization as a soft landing / reasonable conditions: Near the election, multiple mainstream analyses described the U.S. as having likely pulled off or being on the cusp of a "soft landing"—inflation moving down while unemployment stayed relatively low and growth remained positive.(theguardian.com) These descriptions match the podcast’s notion of a “reasonable” non‑recessionary environment.

Given that: (1) no recession had begun by November 2024 on the standard NBER chronology, and (2) GDP growth and employment data show a slowing but still expanding economy that many economists labeled a soft landing, Chamath’s prediction that the U.S. would be in a "reasonable" (non‑recessionary, soft‑landing‑type) condition by the November 2024 election is best classified as right.