ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 00:44:28Wrong
marketseconomy
When Stripe next prices a large liquidity event in the public or late‑stage private markets after October 2023 (e.g., IPO or major secondary), its equity valuation will clear in roughly the $25–30 billion range, implying about a 50% markdown from its prior $55 billion round valuation.
the problem now for stripe is that the public comps dollar for dollar are off 50%, which from the beginning of the year, which then says that if you apply that ratably to its valuation, they did around at 55 billion, then the market clearing trade may be 25 to 30 billion now.View on YouTube
Explanation

Stripe’s next large liquidity event after the Oct 27, 2023 podcast was a tender offer for employee and former‑employee shares announced on February 28, 2024. Stripe and new investors agreed to buy more than $1 billion of employee stock at a $65 billion valuation, up from a $50 billion Series I funding valuation in March 2023.(stripe.com)

Chamath’s prediction was that the next market‑clearing valuation for Stripe equity would be in the $25–30 billion range—roughly a 50% markdown from the prior ~$55 billion round. Instead, the first post‑podcast liquidity event cleared at $65 billion, which is above the earlier $50–55 billion level, not 50% below it.(ft.com)

Subsequent large secondary transactions have only moved Stripe’s valuation higher (e.g., a February 27, 2025 tender offer valuing the company at $91.5 billion, and reports of a later round taking it above $100 billion), confirming that the market never repriced Stripe down to the $25–30 billion range.(stripe.com)

Because the very next major liquidity event after October 2023 priced Stripe far above the predicted range, and later events pushed the valuation even higher, the prediction that Stripe’s next clearing valuation would be around $25–30 billion is wrong.