Chamath argued that, after the public‑market crash in high‑growth tech (late 2021–early 2022), late‑stage private tech valuations would undergo a fast reset over the next several quarters, rather than a slow multi‑year grind. That is broadly what happened.

Evidence:

• PitchBook data summarized by SiliconANGLE show that median late‑stage U.S. VC valuations fell about 29% just between Q1 and Q3 2022, with deal value dropping to an 11‑quarter low and the prior "top of the market" effectively disappearing.【1†turn1search4】
• Carta and related legal/market commentary report that late‑stage “unicorn” valuations were more than halved in a matter of quarters in 2022. One summary of Carta’s cap‑table data notes the median valuation for late‑stage companies fell from unicorn territory (~$949M) in Q3 2022 to about $436M in Q4 2022.【1†turn3search1】
• Carta’s own analysis describes late‑stage startup valuations “plummeting” throughout 2022 and into Q1 2023, characterizing it as a yearlong freefall. By Q2 2023, even after a rebound, Series E+ median valuations were still 71% below their level a year earlier.【1†turn2search0】
• A later Carta review of 2022–2023 data notes that in 2022 alone the median Series D valuation fell 58% and Series E+ fell 74%, calling the late‑stage drop “unprecedented in the previous decade.”【1†turn3search5】
• Silicon Valley Bank data (as summarized in a 2023 discussion) similarly showed 2022 median late‑stage private valuations down ~55%, versus a smaller ~30% drop at early stage and an increase at seed, underscoring that the sharpest, quickest repricing hit exactly the late‑stage cohort Chamath was referring to.【1†turn2reddit19】

While there was some initial lag—late‑stage valuations were still elevated in early 2022—by late 2022 and early 2023 the bulk of the markdowns happened in roughly 3–5 quarters, not stretched over many years. Subsequent down‑round IPOs (e.g., ServiceTitan and Hinge Health listing at ~40–50% below peak private valuations) and deep markdowns at crossover/late‑stage investors like Carta itself being repriced ~75% below its 2022 peak confirm that the lofty 2021‑era late‑stage marks were rapidly reset rather than slowly eroding.【1†turn1news15】【1†turn2news14】【1†turn2search16】

Given this data, Chamath’s forecast of a quick private‑market valuation reset following the public‑market crash was directionally and temporally accurate, so the prediction is best classified as right.