Available data from late 2023 through 2025 show that the venture and growth equity markets did not revert to 2020–2021 peak pricing and instead went through an extended, broad valuation reset—especially at the later stages—matching Chamath’s thesis that “the hard work” of repricing still lay ahead.

Key evidence:

• Carta’s Q4 2023 "State of Private Markets" shows that by late 2023 median valuations at Series D were down nearly 42% from early‑2021 levels, and Series E+ valuations, despite some rebound, were still less than half of their 2021–2022 peaks, indicating a deep markdown at the growth stages rather than a return to bubble valuations. (carta.com)
• Analysis of the 2022–2024 funding environment finds that down rounds have risen structurally: Equidam reports down rounds reached 27.4% of all VC deals in Q1 2024—the highest in a decade—and still about 20% for 2024 overall, evidence of sustained valuation resets rather than transitory blips. (equidam.com)
• Commentaries in 2025 explicitly refer to a "Great Valuation Reset" and estimate that roughly 1 in 5 venture rounds since 2023 has been a down round, framing this as an ongoing correction in how startups are priced after the 2021 boom. (ericashman.com)
• 2025 enterprise SaaS funding data show late‑stage VC median pre‑money valuations at about $74M in 2025 vs. $278M in 2021—a ~73% decline—while venture growth valuations are flat vs. 2021, and large valuation step‑ups have become rare. This is a textbook “hard reset” for late‑stage and growth equity deals. (developmentcorporate.com)
• Broader VC market overviews in 2025 describe “valuation reset” as a core trend: later‑stage valuations remain below 2020 levels; flat and down rounds peaked in 2024, even for marquee companies (e.g., Plaid), underscoring that many private tech companies have been repriced downward rather than returning to their pandemic‑era highs. (caia.org)

There are nuances: seed and some AI‑focused companies have seen valuations hold steady or even exceed 2021 levels, so the reset is not uniform across every single stage or sector. (caia.org) But Chamath’s core claim—that the post‑October‑2023 period would require a difficult valuation reset instead of a smooth reversion to 2020–2021 prices, and that many private tech companies would be marked down—has been borne out by the prevalence of down rounds and steep valuation cuts at growth and late stages through 2024–2025. Thus the prediction is best categorized as right.