As of 30 November 2025, neither condition in Chamath’s bet has occurred:

• U.S. federal debt-to-GDP in 2023–2025: Publicly available data from sources such as the U.S. Treasury and IMF show that U.S. gross federal debt-to-GDP has been roughly in the ~120–130% range (well above 50% but far below 200%) through 2023–2025. Various statistical series (e.g., IMF World Economic Outlook, Federal Reserve / FRED data) all place recent U.S. debt-to-GDP around this band, not near either 50% or 200%.
• Long-term projections: CBO long-term budget outlooks project federal debt held by the public (a narrower measure than gross debt) to rise in coming decades, potentially exceeding its WWII highs and continuing upward, but these are projections, not realized outcomes, and they do not show any near-term path to 50% of GDP. They also do not show debt reaching 200% of GDP as of 2025; those levels, if they occur, are many years in the future. (Multiple CBO reports up to 2025 reinforce this directional trend.)

Because the bet is explicitly about which event happens first in the future starting from the 2023 level — debt falling to 50% of GDP vs. rising to 200% of GDP — and neither threshold has been reached yet, there is no way to declare a winner.

Therefore, the prediction’s status as of 30 November 2025 is “inconclusive (too early)”: we do not yet know whether U.S. federal debt-to-GDP will hit 200% before it ever falls to 50%.