Available data show that Chamath’s core claim—that the inflation surge beginning in 2021 would be persistent, staying clearly above the Fed’s 2% target for several years and causing a multi‑year period of economic strain—has largely played out.

1. Persistence of above‑target inflation

• U.S. annual CPI inflation was about 4.7% in 2021, 8.0% in 2022, 4.1% in 2023, and roughly 3.0–3.2% in 2024, with 2025 year‑to‑date still near 3%, all notably above 2%. (theworlddata.com)
• The Fed’s preferred measure, core PCE inflation, ran well above 2% from early 2021 through at least mid‑2025, only drifting into the mid‑2s in 2024–2025 (e.g., 5.3% at end‑2021, 4.7–5.1% through 2022, around 4% in much of 2023, and still about 2.6–2.9% in 2024–2025). (ycharts.com)
• The Fed’s formal projections in late 2023 anticipated core PCE only reaching the 2% target around 2026, implicitly acknowledging that inflation would remain above target for several years beyond 2021. (cnbc.com)

From the time of his December 2021 statement through at least late 2025, U.S. inflation has indeed stayed persistently above the 2% target for roughly four years and counting, matching the “here to last”/“few years” characterization.

2. “A few years of pain” / economic difficulty

• High inflation eroded real wages and forced the Fed into rapid rate hikes from 2022 onward, which in turn made borrowing “far more expensive for consumers and businesses” and was described as “a significant burden for America’s consumers” over more than two years. (republicanleader.senate.gov)
• By 2025, the cumulative effect on living costs is large: relative to pre‑COVID levels, 2019–2025 price comparisons show housing, rents, vehicles, food, and insurance all up on the order of 20–50%+, indicating a sustained cost‑of‑living squeeze rather than a short, transitory bump. (theworlddata.com)

While the U.S. ultimately avoided a deep recession and the economy remained relatively resilient, the prolonged combination of elevated inflation, higher rates, and significantly higher household expenses is broadly consistent with the kind of multi‑year “pain” Chamath was warning about.

Because inflation did remain well above target for several years after 2021 and produced a sustained period of financial strain for households and borrowers, his prediction is best classified as right, acknowledging that the “pain” manifested more as a long cost‑of‑living squeeze and tight financial conditions than as a classic, severe recession.