It’s too early to know whether this full-cycle prediction is right or wrong.

1. Time horizon issue (core reason for “inconclusive”)
Chamath’s claim is explicitly cycle-wide: that “over the current cycle beginning in 2022” private equity (PE) will buy many private software companies, cut headcount, run them more efficiently, and on average generate roughly 1.2x–1.7x MOIC with few money‑losing deals, in line with historical PE performance.

PE buyout funds typically have holding periods of ~4–7 years before exits, so realized MOIC for deals done starting in 2022 generally will not be known until the late 2020s or early 2030s. Industry data on returns by vintage year show that even funds from the early 2020s are still mostly in the investment/hold phase, with only partial realizations and volatile marks due to changing interest rates and valuations.
Because the “current cycle” starting in 2022 is clearly still ongoing as of late 2025, we cannot yet determine the eventual average MOIC or the fraction of money‑losing deals for that cohort.

2. Observed trends that are directionally consistent, but not dispositive
Even though we can’t fully score the prediction, several parts of the narrative do line up with observed trends since 2022:

• “Buy a ton of private software companies” – There has been a large wave of PE‑backed software take‑privates and buyouts (e.g., Thoma Bravo, Vista Equity Partners, Silver Lake and others remain very active in software and enterprise SaaS). Public reporting and deal databases show that software remains one of the most targeted sectors for PE globally.
• “Fire lots of people” / run them “hyper efficiently” – Numerous PE‑backed software companies (and tech companies more broadly) have announced substantial headcount reductions and cost‑cutting since 2022 as interest rates rose and investors emphasized profitability and efficiency.

These patterns support the mechanics of what Chamath described, but they do not yet tell us if the final fund‑level economics will average 1.2x–1.7x MOIC with few losers for this 2022+ vintage.

3. Why we still cannot score MOIC and loss rates

• Most 2022–2025 software buyouts are still held on PE books, with values based on interim marks; these marks can change materially before exit.
• Exit markets (IPOs, strategic sales, secondary buyouts) have been choppy post‑2022, so ultimate MOIC is highly path‑dependent on future capital‑market conditions.
• Public sources do not yet provide a stable, realized-return dataset specific to the post‑2022 software buyout cohort that would allow us to say, confidently, whether the realized average will fall in the 1.2x–1.7x range with few money‑losing deals.

Because the key measurable components of the prediction (average MOIC and loss frequency over the full 2022+ cycle) cannot yet be observed, the correct scoring as of November 30, 2025 is “inconclusive (too early)”, even though early qualitative evidence on deal activity and layoffs is directionally aligned with his setup.