Evidence shows that both parts of Chamath’s prediction have not played out as stated.

1. Stripe has still not gone public as of late 2025. Multiple up‑to‑date sources note that Stripe remains a privately held company, with recent liquidity provided via tender offers (e.g., at ~$91.5B valuation in February 2025 and around ~$100B+ in later 2025), and explicitly state that it has no IPO completed or on the calendar yet.(fintechweekly.com) This means the hypothesized trigger event (a Stripe IPO) has not occurred.

2. Nonetheless, a broad reset of venture and late‑stage private tech valuations has already occurred without a Stripe IPO. Analyses of the private markets describe a “valuation reset” across venture capital in 2022–2024, with valuations falling back toward long‑term historical averages and a sharp rise in down rounds, particularly at later stages.(wellington.com) For example, Carta’s data conclude that venture valuations “have undergone a reset in the last two years,” with down rounds roughly doubling versus the pre‑2022 period, while other reports characterize 2023 as a year of market‑wide valuation reset and 2024–2025 as a period of gradual recovery from that reset.(edwardconard.com)

Because (a) Stripe has not IPO’d, and (b) the broad reset in private‑company valuations that Chamath was talking about is widely assessed to have already happened through 2022–2024—driven by macro conditions and public‑market repricing, not by any Stripe IPO pricing—his claim that “the reset can’t happen until Stripe goes public” and that Stripe’s IPO would set the cascading valuation framework is contradicted by observed market behavior. Therefore, the prediction is best judged as wrong.