Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
Chamath @ 00:57:29Inconclusive
tech
By around mid-2026 (within five years of July 2021), internet access will be pervasive across the entire Earth, with effectively complete global coverage.
I think that, um, within the next five years, we'll probably have pervasive internet access everywhere in the Earth. And that's that's transformational.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction’s horizon is within five years of July 2021, i.e., up to roughly mid‑2026. As of today (29 November 2025), that deadline has not yet passed, so we cannot definitively say whether it will be true by the stated time.

What we can say so far:

  • As of July 2025, about 68–69% of the global population used the internet (around 5.6 billion people), meaning over 30% of people are still offline.(statista.com)
  • The UN/ITU estimates roughly 2.6 billion people remained offline in 2024, most in rural and low‑income areas, with affordability and infrastructure still major barriers.(social.desa.un.org)
  • Mobile broadband networks (3G/4G/5G) do not yet cover all rural areas; for example, only about 82% of rural populations have 4G coverage, and some rural regions—especially in low‑income countries—still lack any mobile broadband at all.(itu.int)
  • Satellite constellations like Starlink have expanded rapidly (service in ~130–150 countries/territories by 2025), but they still face regulatory gaps, cost constraints, and do not provide practical, affordable access to everyone, especially in the poorest regions.(bez-kabli.pl)

So as of late 2025, the world clearly does not have “pervasive internet access everywhere on Earth” in the sense of effectively complete global coverage. However, because the prediction allows until mid‑2026, it is technically too early to say with certainty that it has failed, hence the classification as inconclusive (too early) rather than definitively wrong.