Chamath’s claim was that if Perplexity or any other search engine "clips off" about 50–100 basis points (0.5–1.0 percentage points) of search-market share from Google, Alphabet’s stock would "go straight down by 50%" once that loss shows up in the data.

What happened to Google’s search share?

• StatCounter-style data show Google’s worldwide search share (all devices) falling from about 91.6% in February 2024 to roughly 89.6–90.4% in 2025, i.e., a decline of about 1–2 percentage points. Over the same period, Bing’s share rose from about 3.3% to ~4.0%, with smaller gains for Yahoo and DuckDuckGo. (proceedinnovative.com) That is exactly the kind of 50–100 bps competitive gain Chamath described.
• However, the specific AI upstart he named, Perplexity, still does not register anywhere near 0.5–1.0% of global search-engine share; industry writeups note that Perplexity’s share of general web search is below major dataset detection thresholds (<0.1%), even if it has a few percent of the much smaller "AI search" niche. (vedranmarkovic.com)

What happened to Alphabet’s stock?

• On the podcast date (1 March 2024), Alphabet Class A (GOOGL) closed at about $136 per share. (statmuse.com) By late November 2025 it trades around $320 and is near all‑time highs, with Alphabet’s 2025 year‑high closing price above $320. (macrotrends.net)
• Over 2024–2025, the worst drawdowns visible in daily/annual data are on the order of 20–30% from recent highs, not anything close to a 50% collapse. (macrotrends.net) In fact, instead of crashing, Alphabet’s market capitalization rose to about $3 trillion for the first time in September 2025, at then‑record stock prices. (investopedia.com)

Assessment Even after Google visibly lost more than the 50–100 bps of search share Chamath highlighted (mostly to Bing and other incumbents), the stock did not "go straight down by 50%"; it roughly doubled from the podcast date and set new highs. Because the antecedent (a ~0.5–1.0 percentage‑point competitive share gain at Google’s expense) has effectively occurred while the predicted 50% price crash clearly has not, this prediction is best scored as wrong. The only caveat is that Perplexity itself hasn’t yet taken that much global share—but Chamath explicitly said "Perplexity or anybody else," and that broader version has already been falsified by the data.