Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
healthpolitics
California Governor Gavin Newsom may reimpose significant COVID-19 restrictions or partial lockdown measures in California around September 2021.
You could see him locking it back up in September.View on YouTube
Explanation

Evidence shows that California did not return to a broad COVID lockdown or stay‑at‑home order around September 2021.

  • On June 15, 2021, California fully reopened, with Governor Newsom terminating the statewide Stay‑at‑Home Order and ending physical distancing, capacity limits, and the color‑tier system.(gov.ca.gov) There is no record of these statewide closures being reimposed later in 2021.
  • Subsequent statewide changes before and around September 2021 were targeted measures, not lockdowns: e.g., an August 11 order requiring teachers and school staff to be vaccinated or tested weekly, and an August 19 rule that, effective September 20, large indoor events (1,000+ attendees) must verify vaccination or a recent negative test.(en.wikipedia.org) These rules allowed events and businesses to continue operating under conditions, rather than “locking back up.”
  • Local governments (e.g., San Francisco, Contra Costa County, Los Angeles City/County, West Hollywood, Berkeley) added their own vaccine‑check and mask rules for certain indoor businesses and large events in August–October 2021, but businesses generally remained open with restrictions, not closed under a stay‑at‑home or broad shutdown order.(en.wikipedia.org)
  • A broader statewide indoor mask mandate was reintroduced later, from December 15, 2021 to January 15, 2022, again as a mitigation measure rather than a stay‑at‑home or lockdown order.(en.wikipedia.org)

Given that the prediction was that Newsom would be “locking it back up in September” (i.e., reimposing major lockdown‑style restrictions), and the actual policy changes were limited, targeted measures without a renewed statewide lockdown or stay‑at‑home order, the prediction did not come true.