The prediction is conditional: Chamath claims that if Congress stopped using omnibus/continuing resolutions and instead passed the 12 regular appropriations bills through the normal process, total federal spending would fall by roughly one‑third to one‑half.

As of late 2025, that prerequisite has not occurred:

• For FY2025, Congress funded the government with a full‑year continuing resolution (the Full-Year Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2025) that continued FY2024 funding levels for all 12 regular appropriations bills, rather than completing those 12 bills through the standard process. (congress.gov)
• CRS data show that omnibus and multi‑bill vehicles have remained a dominant feature of the appropriations process through at least FY2024; FY2006 was the last year when all regular appropriations were enacted individually. (everycrsreport.com)
• For FY2026, Congress again relied on continuing resolutions to keep the government open, rather than finishing all 12 standalone appropriations bills. (congress.gov)

Because the triggering reform (ending omnibus/CRs and moving fully to 12 regular bills) has not been implemented, we have no real‑world observation of what would happen to spending under that scenario. Available evidence only tells us what has happened under continued omnibus/CR use, not under the alternative process Chamath described. The scale of the asserted effect (a 33–50% reduction in total federal spending) is also not something that mainstream budget analyses have quantified for such a narrow process change, so we cannot reliably infer correctness from existing research.

Since the key condition has never been met and the claim is a large, untested counterfactual about what would happen, its truth or falsity cannot be empirically determined from post‑podcast data.