Why this prediction is wrong

Chamath’s claim was that, starting around 2020 and "for the foreseeable future," large M&A by the Big Four (Facebook/Meta, Google/Alphabet, Apple, Amazon) would be impossible due to antitrust/regulatory pressure, implying a de facto halt to major acquisitions.

In the 5+ years since that July 2020 statement, multiple large, multi‑billion‑dollar acquisitions by these firms have not only been announced but successfully closed despite heavy scrutiny:

• Amazon

  • Closed its $8.45 billion acquisition of MGM in March 2022 after U.S. and EU review; the FTC let the waiting period expire without blocking the deal. (forbes.com)
  • Closed its $3.9 billion acquisition of primary‑care provider One Medical in February 2023; the FTC investigated and issued a second request but ultimately did not stop the merger. (cnbc.com)
  • Its attempted $1.4 billion acquisition of iRobot was blocked in practice by U.S. and EU opposition and then abandoned in January 2024, showing scrutiny is real but not an absolute bar. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Google / Alphabet

  • Completed the $5.4 billion acquisition of cybersecurity firm Mandiant in September 2022 after DOJ and other antitrust reviews concluded without blocking the deal. (en.wikipedia.org)
  • Agreed in 2025 to acquire cybersecurity startup Wiz for $32 billion, its largest deal ever; the transaction is moving through regulatory review, with reports that DOJ has cleared it to close in 2026. (ft.com)

• Meta (Facebook)

  • Announced the purchase of Within Unlimited (VR fitness app Supernatural) for roughly $400 million. The FTC sued to block the deal, but a federal judge denied the injunction; the FTC eventually dropped its challenge and the deal closed in February 2023. (cnbc.com)
  • Meta also closed its acquisition of customer‑service software firm Kustomer, first announced in 2020, after conditional EU approval in early 2022. (euronews.com)
  • Conversely, Meta was forced to divest Giphy by the UK CMA, showing heightened enforcement but again not a total ban on other deals. (techcrunch.com)

• Apple

  • Apple has faced escalating antitrust actions (e.g., U.S. v. Apple in 2024, German and EU gatekeeper designations) but continues to make smaller, strategic acquisitions; it has chosen not to pursue mega‑deals recently, rather than being uniquely barred while peers are not. (en.wikipedia.org)

Regulatory climate vs. prediction content

Antitrust scrutiny against Big Tech has unquestionably intensified since 2020 (multiple DOJ/FTC suits against Google and Meta, new cases against Apple, and abandoned deals like Amazon–iRobot). (en.wikipedia.org) But Chamath’s prediction was stronger: he said large M&A by the Big Four was "impossible" and implied a sustained halt to major acquisitions.

The actual record shows:

• Several very large deals (>$3–5B) by Amazon and Google completed post‑2020.
• Medium‑sized tech deals (hundreds of millions to low billions) by Meta proceeded despite direct agency lawsuits, with courts sometimes siding against regulators (e.g., Within Unlimited).
• Regulators have blocked or deterred some deals, but not to the point that “large acquisition and M&A … is impossible” for these firms as a group.

Because multiple Big Four companies have completed exactly the kind of large acquisitions that the prediction said would be impossible, and they did so within a few years of the claim under intense modern antitrust scrutiny, the prediction is wrong.