ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 01:18:48Inconclusive
conflicttech
Given persistently declining US military enlistment, over the coming years the US armed forces will increasingly replace human roles with automation, becoming heavily dependent on drones and other unmanned systems for core military functions.
We don't have a choice, because I think the point is that if you just you just push this photo, we have an enormous human capital problem with the military, which is there's just not enough folks enlisting anymore. So we don't have any choice except to automate and become drone dependent.View on YouTube
Explanation

As of December 1, 2025, there is strong evidence that:

  1. U.S. military recruiting shortfalls are real and persistent.

    • The U.S. Army, Navy, and Air Force all reported significant active-duty recruiting shortfalls in FY2023 and continued challenges into FY2024–2025, widely described by Pentagon officials and major outlets as a “recruiting crisis.”

  2. The Department of Defense is explicitly pushing increased automation and large-scale use of unmanned systems.

    • In August 2023, DoD announced the Replicator initiative, aiming to field thousands of “attritable autonomous systems” across multiple domains (air, sea, land) within 18–24 months to counter China’s mass and change force structure at scale.
    • Service branches are accelerating procurement and experimentation with drones and other unmanned platforms (e.g., loitering munitions, unmanned surface vessels, autonomous ISR platforms), with senior leaders repeatedly citing manpower constraints and the need to offset adversary numbers as motivations.

However, Chamath’s prediction has two stronger elements that cannot yet be confirmed or falsified:

  • Time horizon – He said “over the coming years,” which implies a multi‑year structural shift, not something that would necessarily be observable by late 2025.
  • Degree of dependence – “Automate and become drone dependent” suggests that unmanned systems will become central to core military functions, not just important or rapidly growing. While the trajectory clearly points toward much heavier use of drones and automation, current U.S. force structure in 2025 is still predominantly manned and the system is in transition.

So far, the evidence supports the direction of his reasoning (recruiting crisis → push for automation and drones), but it is too early to say that U.S. forces have in fact become “drone dependent” for core functions, or that this end-state will definitively occur. The prediction is therefore not yet testable in a decisive way.

Given the short time elapsed and the inherently long-term nature of the claim, the fairest assessment as of December 1, 2025 is:

Result: inconclusive (too early to judge).