ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 01:05:56Inconclusive
marketsai
The current market hype and outsized investor focus on Nvidia and AI chips will persist for at least several quarters and likely a few years, after which institutional 'smart money' investors will rotate their capital into the next segment of the AI value chain (away from Nvidia/chipmakers).
So we're gonna we're gonna have a few years. We're gonna have a few quarters for sure of this hype. And then the smart money will probably figure out where the next lily pad is, and then they'll go to the next.View on YouTube
Explanation

Chamath’s prediction has two parts:

  1. "A few quarters, maybe a few years" of hype and focus on Nvidia/AI chips.
    From mid‑2023 through late‑2025, Nvidia and AI chips have remained at the very center of the AI trade. Nvidia passed a $1T valuation in 2023 and then became the first company to reach $4T and later $5T in 2025, with these gains explicitly attributed to surging demand for AI/data‑center hardware. (en.wikipedia.org) Industry commentary describes an ongoing “AI supercycle” in which advanced chips and HBM memory are the main growth engine for semiconductors through at least 2025–26. (stocks.observer-reporter.com) That strongly supports the first part: the hype and outsized investor focus on Nvidia/AI chips have indeed persisted for multiple quarters and into multiple years after May 2023.

  2. "Then the smart money will probably figure out where the next lily pad is" and rotate capital to the next part of the AI stack.
    As of late 2025, there is some broadening of AI enthusiasm (e.g., Alphabet’s surge toward a multi‑trillion valuation on AI and its own chips, plus interest in software, cloud, data centers, and power infrastructure), but Nvidia remains the clear centerpiece of the AI trade and a dominant weight in major indexes. (reuters.com) Many analysts still project Nvidia to lead AI hardware and infrastructure well into the late 2020s, and discussions of rotation are mostly framed as future risk or early bearish positioning by some investors rather than a completed, broad smart‑money shift away from Nvidia and AI chips. (businessinsider.com)

Because the first part (sustained multi‑quarter/years hype around Nvidia and AI chips) has clearly been correct so far, but the second, longer‑horizon part (a substantial smart‑money rotation to the “next lily pad” in the AI value chain) has not yet clearly occurred and may not be expected until further years out, the overall prediction cannot yet be judged fully right or wrong.

Hence, the status is inconclusive (too early): one component has played out as described, but the key forward‑looking rotation piece is still unresolved.