Evidence from 2024–2025 shows the opposite of what Chamath’s prediction implied:

1. Tech/software valuations did not “have a long way to go down” – they went up.

   • The Nasdaq‑100 (heavily tech and software) returned +24.9% in 2024 and is up about +20% in 2025 to late November, following a +53.8% gain in 2023, indicating a strong rally rather than a further large drawdown from 2023 levels. (slickcharts.com)
   • The iShares Expanded Tech‑Software ETF (IGV), a broad software ETF, was up ~16% over the prior 12 months as of July 31, 2024, then +21% year‑to‑date as of Feb 5, 2025, and +31% over the last 12 months as of June 11, 2025 – again consistent with rising, not collapsing, software valuations. (nasdaq.com)
   • While a high‑growth cloud ETF (WCLD) did experience drawdowns (e.g., ‑23% YTD and ‑14.6% over the prior year as of April 8, 2025), by October 31, 2025 its 1‑year return was +7.9% and 3‑year average annual return ~9%, suggesting volatility but not a sector‑wide collapse "a long way" below early‑2024 levels. (zacks.com)
   • A Reuters analysis in November 2025 notes that U.S. tech’s share of S&P 500 market cap is at multi‑decade highs and its forward P/E (~29x) is well above the 10‑year average, explicitly characterizing valuations as stretched, not compressed. (reuters.com)

2. Gross margins for software/tech did not compress toward 35%; they remained very high.

   • A 2024 software industry study reports 2023 gross margins around 70% for the sector, with a 10‑year median near 67%, already far above 35%. (blacknoteinvestment.com)
   • Updated 2025 benchmarks put SaaS gross margins in the 75–85% range on average, reinforcing that leading software businesses continue to enjoy very high gross profitability. (grossmargin.co.uk)
   • NYU‑Stern and other benchmark compilations similarly show software categories (system/application, internet, entertainment) with gross margins typically 60–70%+, not trending toward 35%. (thecfoclub.com)
   • Individual “best‑run” software names (e.g., Unity, Gartner) still show gross margins around ~70%+, with the industry median software gross margin over 40%, both well above the ~35% level Chamath used in his argument. (gurufocus.com)

3. High‑multiple software/AI names remain richly valued rather than broadly re‑rated down.

   • In 2025, Figma’s IPO priced up to an enterprise value of about 55× forward 2026 revenue, making it one of the most richly valued public software companies; Palantir was cited trading at about 80× next‑year revenue, far above any notion of compressed valuation multiples. (launchbaycapital.com)
   • An AI‑focused public‑company index reports a median next‑twelve‑month revenue multiple around 8–10× as of mid‑/late‑2025, again indicating robust valuations in a key software subsector. (flybridge.com)

Taken together, by late 2025 we do not see: (a) software/tech gross margins converging toward ~35%, nor (b) a substantial, sustained sector‑wide decline in software/tech equity valuations from early‑2024 levels. Instead, margins remain structurally high and broad tech/software indices are significantly higher than at the time of the prediction. On the available data, Chamath’s prediction has been wrong so far.