ETF approval part:

• On January 10, 2024, the U.S. SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs (e.g., from BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark/21Shares, Invesco, etc.), matching the “series of ETFs” and “days away” timing in early 2024.
  → This portion of the prediction was correct.

Mainstream adoption / ‘traditional financial lexicon’ part: Chamath’s broader claim was that by the end of 2024 Bitcoin would have mainstream adoption in the sense that it is:

1. Widely understood
2. Easily purchasable by retail investors, including older demographics
3. Commonly treated as part of the traditional financial asset lexicon

Assessing these points is inherently qualitative:

• Easily purchasable: After ETF approvals, BTC exposure became available in standard brokerage accounts (Fidelity, Schwab, Robinhood, etc.), including for retirement accounts and older investors. This clearly increased access and made Bitcoin more like a conventional asset in distribution channels. (This part leans true.)
• Widely understood: Surveys and media coverage through 2024 show growing awareness of Bitcoin and crypto, but not consistent, deep understanding in the general population, especially among older or less tech-savvy groups. A large portion of the public still views Bitcoin as speculative/volatile and does not fully understand how it works or its investment thesis. (This part is not clearly true.)
• Part of the traditional financial lexicon: Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETFs are now regularly covered by mainstream financial media and included in portfolio discussions (e.g., “alternatives,” “digital assets,” or small satellite allocations). But it is not yet treated as a standard core asset class on par with stocks and bonds in most traditional asset-allocation frameworks and retirement plans. It remains somewhat niche/controversial rather than universally accepted. (This is partially but not fully true.)

Because “mainstream adoption” and being part of the “traditional financial lexicon” are subjective thresholds without a clear, quantitative cutoff, and the evidence points to partial fulfillment (access and visibility yes, universal acceptance and understanding no), the overall prediction cannot be cleanly scored as right or wrong.

Conclusion:

• ETF timing and approvals: right.
• Strong-form claim about Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption and fully entering the traditional financial lexicon by end of 2024: partially realized but not clearly achieved.

Given the mix of clearly correct and inherently subjective elements, the fairest overall verdict is "ambiguous" rather than definitively right or wrong.