Chamath @ 01:01:53Inconclusive
economypoliticsgovernment
Over the nine months following this May 2025 discussion (i.e., by around February 2026), there will be a series of new trade deals concluded under the Trump trade policy, and there will NOT be a significant shrinkage in either foreign direct investment into the U.S. or domestic investment due to policy uncertainty; instead, the U.S. economy will "end up in a good spot" after iterating through the new tariff/trade framework.
If we're sitting here in nine months and you're saying this and there are no deals, I would say that you're right... So for all we know, there's like 30 deals that are waiting in the wings. And the first one will set the tone... I think that Sachs is right here, which is it's way too early to declare defeat and that it was quote unquote, chaos. I think if we're sitting here in nine months and foreign direct investment has shriveled up and domestic investment has shriveled up because there is just no continuity, you have a claim. G [01:02:37.020]: But that's not because because I don't I don't think that'll happen. I don't think that'll happen. I think we will end up in like, I'm with Ryan. Like we will end up in a good spot because we'll iterate through this.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction window is explicitly nine months after the May 2025 discussion, i.e. roughly until February 2026. The claims to evaluate by that time are:
- New trade deals under Trump’s trade policy will have been concluded.
- There will NOT be a significant shrinkage in foreign direct investment (FDI) into the U.S. or domestic investment due to policy uncertainty.
- The U.S. economy will “end up in a good spot” after iterating through the new tariff/trade framework.
Today’s date is November 30, 2025, which is about six to seven months after the May 2025 discussion and before the February 2026 horizon the predictor set.
Because the predictor explicitly said this should be judged in nine months and that date has not yet arrived, it is too early to decisively determine whether the full prediction is right or wrong. Therefore the correct classification, as of now, is “inconclusive (too early)”.