Joe Biden won the 2020 U.S. presidential election, defeating incumbent President Donald Trump. Major media organizations projected Biden as the winner on November 7, 2020, and the Electoral College formally confirmed his victory in December 2020. This outcome aligns with Chamath’s July 2020 prediction that "all roads kind of look like Biden," i.e., that a Biden victory was the most likely result.

Because the predicted most-likely outcome (a Joe Biden win in November 2020) did in fact occur, this prediction is right.

Sources:

• Coverage of the 2020 U.S. presidential election results and Electoral College certification by major news organizations and official sources.