Available 2025 data show that major incumbent enterprise‑software vendors are still growing and profitable, but they have begun to exhibit the kind of “fissures” Chamath described—slower growth, restructuring, and mounting pressure from faster‑growing AI‑native rivals—by late 2025.

On the incumbent side: Salesforce’s revenue growth has decelerated to the high‑single‑digit range (about 8–9% guidance for FY26) with slowing subscription growth across core clouds, even as margins remain high; its stock is the worst performer among large‑cap tech in 2025 and analysts explicitly worry that AI could “eat away” at SaaS business models. (investor.salesforce.com) SAP missed Q3 2025 revenue expectations, with total revenue up only 7% and its cloud business growing 22%—still solid but the slowest cloud growth since 2023—prompting guidance to the low end of its cloud‑revenue range. (reuters.com) Workday announced layoffs of about 1,750 employees (8.5% of staff) in early 2025 to refocus spending on AI and later reported “lukewarm” subscription revenue that merely met expectations, causing a share‑price drop and reflecting softer enterprise demand. (reuters.com) Adobe, despite posting ~10–11% revenue growth and record results, has been downgraded on the thesis that “AI is eating software,” with analysts highlighting intensifying competition from AI‑powered tools and newer design platforms; its shares are down materially year‑to‑date. (barrons.com) Altogether, these trends show slowing growth, workforce cuts, and increased investor skepticism across several flagship vendors, even as a few (e.g., ServiceNow, Oracle) continue to post strong AI‑driven growth and margin expansion. (reddit.com)

In contrast, AI‑native competitors are growing dramatically faster. Databricks projects about $4 billion in 2025 revenue, more than 50% year‑over‑year growth, with >140% net revenue retention and hundreds of $1M‑plus enterprise customers. (reuters.com) Sector‑wide benchmark data for 2025 indicate AI‑native startups have median annual growth around 100%, versus roughly 20–25% for traditional SaaS, and are reaching $100M ARR in 1–2 years with far higher revenue per employee. (deepstarstrategic.com) Industry analyses also describe customers delaying some SaaS renewals and experimenting with AI‑native tools, explicitly framing this as pressure on legacy software economics. (stansberryresearch.com)

Because Chamath only predicted that “fissures” would start to appear in 2025—rather than a full‑blown collapse—the combination of (a) visible growth deceleration, restructurings, and investor multiple compression at several large incumbents, and (b) much faster growth and capital allocation toward AI‑native enterprise platforms, matches the spirit of his call. The incumbents remain large and profitable, but clear early cracks relative to AI‑native competitors are observable by late 2025, so the prediction is best judged as broadly right rather than wrong or purely inconclusive.