Chamath’s prediction was that within six weeks of March 17–18, 2020 (by late April 2020), some U.S. cities or towns would set up “green zones” where people who could show a negative COVID‑19 test or positive IgG/IgM antibody test plus ID would be allowed to interact and dine in restaurants.

What actually happened in the U.S. March–April 2020

• From mid‑March 2020 onward, most U.S. states issued stay‑at‑home orders that closed dine‑in restaurants, allowing only takeout and delivery; this was the dominant pattern through April 2020. (en.wikipedia.org)
• State timelines show that stay‑at‑home orders were still in effect through most or all of April in many states (e.g., New York, Illinois, Michigan, etc.), with formal reopenings generally not beginning until late April or early May. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Early reopenings that did begin near the end of April (e.g., Georgia and Texas) allowed restaurants to resume dine‑in service under strict capacity limits, spacing, and mask/sanitation rules—not based on individual test or antibody status. Georgia’s April 27, 2020 guidelines capped patrons per square footage and mandated employee masking and distancing, with signage asking symptomatic people to stay away, but did not require showing test results or antibodies. (atlanta.eater.com) Texas’s May 1, 2020 reopening similarly limited restaurant capacity (25%, with possible 50% in some rural counties) and described general health protocols, again without any per‑person testing or antibody checks for entry. (cnbc.com)

Status of “immunity passports” and green‑zone ideas

• In spring 2020, “immunity passports” based on antibody tests were being proposed and debated in the U.S., not implemented. For example, a May 18, 2020 ACLU analysis discusses immunity passports only as a hypothetical proposal, warning of civil‑liberties and equity problems if such a system were adopted in the United States. (aclu.org)
• The World Health Organization, in April 2020, explicitly warned against issuing “immunity passports” or “risk‑free certificates” based on antibodies, stating there was insufficient evidence that antibodies conferred reliable immunity; this further discouraged governments from adopting such schemes at that time. (reviewjournal.com)
• Later in the pandemic, some U.S. jurisdictions did introduce vaccine or vaccine/negative test requirements for indoor dining (e.g., New York City, San Francisco, New Orleans), but these appeared in mid‑ to late‑2021, were based primarily on vaccination, and were not framed as localized April 2020 “green zones” built around antibody tests. (congress.gov)

Across contemporary reporting, government orders, and retrospective summaries of early‑2020 U.S. COVID policy, there is no evidence that any U.S. city or town, by late April 2020, implemented a system matching Chamath’s description: geographically bounded “green zones” where restaurant access was contingent on showing a recent negative viral test or positive antibody test plus ID. Instead, the reality was blanket closures followed by capacity‑limited reopenings without individual immunity‑based screening.

Conclusion: Since the specific scenario he forecast did not materialize within the six‑week window (or at all in that form in the U.S.), the prediction is wrong.