ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 00:46:45Right
techclimateeconomy
Having crossed roughly 5% of new car sales, electric vehicle adoption in the U.S. has passed the critical tipping point and will continue transitioning from early adopters to broad mass‑market adoption from 2022 onward (i.e., EV share of new car sales will keep rising materially rather than stalling or reversing).
There was a lot of, um, analysis that's been done on consumer adoption patterns. And typically for a new good or service, the tipping point is around 5% mass market adoption from when it goes from early adopters to the mass market, and EVs just crossed 5%. So to his point, the historical data would tell you that we're now past the critical point where it's no longer questionable. Now it's just going to happen.View on YouTube
Explanation

U.S. plug‑in EVs (BEVs + PHEVs) were already around the 5% “tipping point” when Chamath spoke: their share of new light‑vehicle sales rose from 4.0% in 2021 to 6.8% in 2022, meaning the 5% threshold had just been passed in that period. (en.wikipedia.org)

After that point, EV share did continue to rise rather than stall or reverse:

  • In 2023, plug‑ins reached about 9.1% of U.S. new‑vehicle sales, a clear increase from 2022. (en.wikipedia.org)
  • For full‑year 2024, Reuters reports roughly 1.3 million EVs sold out of 15.8 million new vehicles (about 8% share), up from around 7.6% in 2023 on the same data series—again an increase in share, even if growth slowed. (reuters.com)
  • Quarterly data from Cox Automotive / Kelley Blue Book show: Q1 2024 EV share at 7.3% (down from Q4 2023 but still slightly up year‑over‑year), and Q2 2024 hitting a record ~330,000 EVs with about 8% of new‑vehicle sales, higher than both Q1 2024 and Q2 2023. (coxautoinc.com)

Into 2025, the pattern of continued (if slower) growth persists rather than a stall or reversal:

  • In Q1 2025, U.S. EV sales were nearly 300,000 units, up double‑digits year‑over‑year, with market share around 7.5–8% depending on source. (fintechzoom.com)
  • By August 2025, U.S. EV sales hit their best month on record at about 146,000 vehicles, nearly 10% of all auto sales. (marketwatch.com)
  • Other analyses describe 2024–H1 2025 as a period of slowing growth and policy headwinds, but still note that EV sales are rising on an annual basis and that the shift is moving into a more mature, market‑driven phase rather than collapsing. (apnews.com)

Meanwhile, the model mix has broadened beyond early‑adopter niches: mainstream crossovers and pickups like the Chevy Equinox EV and Ford F‑150 Lightning have ramped up and become important volume models, consistent with a transition toward more mass‑market segments. (en.wikipedia.org)

Taken together, the data from 2022 through late 2025 show that after crossing roughly 5% share, U.S. EV adoption continued to climb and did not meaningfully stall or reverse, even though growth rates slowed. That outcome matches the essence of Chamath’s prediction about passing a critical tipping point and moving from early‑adopter dominance toward broader mass‑market adoption, so the prediction is best judged as right within the time window we can observe so far.