Assessment Chamath’s 21 May 2020 claim that “this is the beginning of the modern Cold War… America versus China” predicted a prolonged, Cold War–style strategic rivalry marked by systemic geopolitical and economic competition. Developments since 2020 align strongly with that description.

Key evidence that a Cold War–style rivalry emerged and persisted

1. U.S. policy framing China as a long‑term strategic competitor

   • In February 2021, President Biden announced a Pentagon China Task Force specifically to craft strategy for the United States to “win the competition of the future” with China, emphasizing military posture, alliances, and technology as part of a broader rivalry. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • Major think tanks like Brookings now explicitly describe U.S.–China ties as great‑power competition and debate whether it constitutes a “new cold war,” noting that intense, prolonged competition is now a “defining feature” of the era. (brookings.edu)

2. Deepening and durable economic/technological confrontation

   • In October 2022, the U.S. imposed sweeping semiconductor and advanced computing export controls on China, described as the most expansive export-control action in decades and intended to block China’s progress in critical technologies for economic and military power. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • These restrictions have been repeatedly tightened (e.g., further rules in 2023–2024 on chipmaking tools), explicitly framed as part of a long‑term effort to preserve U.S. technological advantage and constrain China’s military modernization. (theguardian.com)
   • High‑profile corporate clashes (e.g., Nvidia’s AI chips becoming a central battleground in U.S.–China export and investment controls) illustrate that the rivalry is being fought “with computers and money,” just as Chamath described. (apnews.com)

3. Growing geopolitical and security bloc dynamics

   • Analysts and officials increasingly adopt “new Cold War” or similar framing, emphasizing systemic ideological, economic, and security competition between the U.S. and China, including contests over supply‑chain “chokepoints” (rare earths vs. advanced semiconductors). (blog.maxthon.com)
   • Parallel to this, China has tightened strategic coordination with other U.S. adversaries (Russia, Iran, North Korea), sometimes described collectively as a new anti‑Western axis or the “CRINK” grouping, further reinforcing bloc‑like geopolitics reminiscent of a Cold War environment. (en.wikipedia.org)

Why this supports the prediction

• The rivalry is long‑term and structural, not a transient trade spat: it spans military planning, industrial policy, technology, diplomacy, and alliances.
• Both sides increasingly treat the other as the primary strategic competitor and redesign institutions and laws accordingly (export controls, investment screening, task forces, alliance building).
• Expert discourse widely recognizes a “new Cold War” / “Cold War‑like” dynamic—even if some scholars caution against the metaphor, they still agree the relationship is defined by intense, enduring competition rather than partnership. (brookings.edu)

Taken together, events since 2020 closely match Chamath’s forecast of a “modern Cold War” marked by systemic, U.S.–China strategic rivalry across economic and geopolitical domains.

Conclusion Given five years of consistent evidence of entrenched, Cold War–style competition between the U.S. and China, Chamath’s prediction is substantively correct.