Chamath predicted in October 2021 that at some future point the tech and venture market would undergo a major valuation reset, likening it to the dot‑com crash and arguing that the preceding liquidity would make the correction particularly violent.

Within roughly a year, this scenario occurred:

• Public tech bear market: The Nasdaq Composite entered a bear market from November 2021 to December 2022, falling about 33% from its peak, compared with a roughly 78% drawdown during the 2000–02 dot‑com bust. (aol.com) While not as deep at the index level as 2000–02, it was still one of the worst Nasdaq bear markets since then.

• Speculative tech wiped out (dot‑com‑scale losses): Highly valued, liquidity‑fueled tech names experienced collapses comparable to the dot‑com era. The ARK Innovation ETF (a basket of high‑growth, unprofitable tech) suffered a peak‑to‑trough drawdown of about 80.9% between February 2021 and December 2022, on par with the Nasdaq’s 78% collapse in the dot‑com crash. (portfolioslab.com) ARK’s fintech ETF saw a similar maximum drawdown of about 78.6% ending in December 2022. (portfolioslab.com) Bessemer’s Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index, tracking high‑growth SaaS names, fell over 40% in 2022 from its 2021 peak, retracing all the way back to 2020 levels. (bvp.com) These moves represent a severe rerating of the exact segment Chamath was talking about.

• Venture and late‑stage funding reset: Venture markets also saw a dramatic reversal from 2021’s liquidity boom. In the US, total VC investment value in 2022 shrank 40.8% versus 2021, with deal volume down nearly 25%. (globaldata.com) Globally, December 2022 venture deal value was down 66.7% year‑over‑year, reflecting a sharp pullback from the 2021 funding frenzy. (spglobal.com) By 2023, total global VC funding had fallen about 40% from 2022 to 2023 and, by 2024, was roughly 50%+ below 2021’s peak, indicating a sustained VC “winter” after the boom. (spglobal.com) This is exactly the sort of valuation reset and liquidity withdrawal he described.

• Violent mark‑downs for crossover investors: Large crossover and growth funds that had aggressively deployed 2020–21 liquidity into tech and late‑stage venture were hit especially hard. Tiger Global’s flagship fund lost over 50% in 2022 amid the tech sell‑off, with reports of around $17 billion in losses wiping out much of a decade of gains. (cnbc.com) Even by the end of 2024 its big pandemic‑era private tech fund remained in the red despite an AI‑driven rebound, underscoring how brutal the reset was for capital that had chased 2020–21 valuations. (businessinsider.com)

Relative to the dot‑com crash, the broad Nasdaq decline was smaller, but in the speculative, liquidity‑driven parts of tech and in late‑stage venture, drawdowns (70–80% losses, funding collapsing by roughly half or more, and major crossover funds suffering historic hits) were of very similar magnitude to 2000–02. Chamath did not specify a date or catalyst, only that such a reset would "eventually" occur and would be made more violent by the prior liquidity. By 2022–23, that major valuation reset had clearly happened in exactly the areas he identified.

Given this evidence, the prediction that there would be a violent, dot‑com‑style rerating in tech and venture due to excess liquidity is best judged as right.