because there's going to be more market volatility, not less.View on YouTube
Using the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) as a standard proxy for U.S. equity market volatility, the post‑2021 period has indeed been more volatile on average than the calm years leading into 2020.
Baseline (pre‑2020 low‑vol regime)
From 2017–2019, often cited as one of the calmest stretches for U.S. equities, the VIX annual averages were about 11.1, 16.6, and 15.4, respectively, giving a three‑year average around 14.4.【1view0】 This reflects the well‑documented low‑volatility environment of the late 2010s.【5search0】
Post‑2021 period
From 2021–2023, the VIX annual averages were 19.7, 25.6, and 17.8, respectively, for a three‑year average of roughly 21.0, markedly higher than the 2017–2019 baseline and also above the long‑run VIX mean of about 19.5.【1view0】【2search4】 Even though 2023 and especially 2024 saw extended stretches of unusually low day‑to‑day volatility, analysts repeatedly noted that the VIX was oscillating around or below its long‑term average only after several large spikes, not returning to the persistently subdued levels of the late 2010s.【5search9】【5search7】
Additional evidence supports a structurally more shock‑prone regime since 2021. 2022’s bear market and policy tightening kept volatility elevated; 2023’s regional banking stress and multiple tariff and macro scares in 2024–2025 produced repeated VIX spikes, including an episode in early 2025 where VIX briefly moved above 40, the highest since 2020.【5news15】【5news14】 Broader analysis (e.g., the FT’s discussion of an era of more frequent and intense volatility shocks) similarly characterizes recent years as featuring more abrupt market swings than earlier decades.【0news14】
Overall, across the multi‑year window from 2021 through 2025, average implied volatility and the frequency/magnitude of volatility shocks have been higher than during the unusually placid pre‑2020 period that preceded the Robinhood/GameStop episode. That makes Chamath’s directional claim that there would be more market volatility rather than less essentially correct, even though there have been intermittent calm stretches.