Chamath @ 00:40:23Inconclusive
politicsgovernmenteconomy
Assuming the current fiscal and policy trajectory continues from around 2023, San Francisco will not significantly reform its governance and fiscal practices for roughly 5–10 years; meaningful policy "rationality" or major course correction is unlikely to emerge before approximately 2032–2033.
that delta t of incompetence tends to be about 5 to 10 years. I would say the midpoint is eight. So if we're starting now, you'll probably see some rationality by 2032, 2033.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction is explicitly about a 5–10 year lag in policy change, with an expected midpoint around 2032–2033 for “rationality” or meaningful reform in San Francisco’s governance and fiscal practices.
As of November 30, 2025, only about 2 years have passed since the prediction (made in late 2023). That is far short of the lower bound (5 years) of the forecast window, so we cannot yet determine whether:
- San Francisco will indeed fail to significantly reform over the full 5–10 year period, or
- A major course correction and sustained policy rationality will emerge earlier than 2032–2033.
Because the core claim is about when meaningful reform will manifest, and that time horizon has not yet arrived, the prediction cannot be evaluated at this point.
Therefore the correct status is: it is too early to tell whether the prediction is accurate.