On balance, the prediction matches how events unfolded from late 2021 through 2025.

Evidence that the crisis did enter a winding‑down “final phase” after late 2021:

• The World Health Organization declared on May 5, 2023 that COVID‑19 was no longer a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, citing over a year of declining deaths and hospitalizations and noting that this trend had allowed most countries to return to pre‑COVID life. (financialexpress.com)
• The United States ended its federal COVID‑19 national and public‑health emergencies on May 11, 2023, explicitly framing this as a shift away from crisis response to routine management. (cnbc.com)
• By 2024–2025, multiple analyses describe COVID-19 as having become an endemic respiratory virus: in the U.S., annual COVID deaths fell dramatically (from hundreds of thousands in 2020–2021 to under ~50,000 in 2024), and experts now characterize it as a persistent but much lower‑level health threat, comparable to influenza in its typical impact. (washingtonpost.com)

On the disruption side, the world did not return to the generalized, synchronized 2020‑style upheaval (global lockdowns, school closures almost everywhere, and unprecedented travel bans) after late 2021:

• Although major waves (especially Omicron in early 2022) produced record case counts and temporary strain—and some countries such as China imposed severe localized lockdowns like the Shanghai lockdown of spring 2022—these were geographically limited, and most of the world progressively relaxed rather than re‑escalated restrictions after 2021. (en.wikipedia.org) That is consistent with a bumpy “final phase” rather than a return to the earlier global shock.

Regarding his explicit caveat, “Unless something escapes from the lab again”: there is no accepted evidence that any new, distinct lab‑engineered SARS‑CoV‑2 lineage escaped after 2021. Later variants (Omicron sublineages, etc.) are treated in the scientific literature as products of viral evolution in humans, not as separate lab-origin outbreaks. (en.wikipedia.org)

So, even though the final phase was longer and more damaging than many people hoped—2022 still saw substantial additional mortality worldwide—the trajectory from late 2021 onward was indeed a long, uneven wind‑down toward endemicity without a second, globally comparable crisis phase. Under that interpretation, Chamath’s conditional prediction is best classified as right.