Chamath’s prediction is that investors shorting Palantir around mid‑November 2025 will, on net, lose money as Palantir’s share price rises over time.

Key facts:

• The episode is dated 14 November 2025.
• As of 28 November 2025, Palantir (PLTR) is trading around $168–169 per share .

We do not have a clearly defined evaluation horizon (e.g., 6 months, 1 year, full short thesis cycle). Only ~2 weeks have elapsed between the prediction date and the latest available price. Short positions can become profitable or unprofitable over much longer timeframes, and the claim is about eventual losses for shorts, not about a very short window.

Even if shorts are currently losing or making money, that does not yet tell us the ultimate outcome of those positions. Because the time window since the prediction is very short and the prediction is about performance "from late 2025 onward" without a specific cutoff date, there is not enough elapsed time to reasonably say whether shorts ultimately lost money.

Therefore, the correct evaluation as of 30 November 2025 is:

• Result: inconclusive (too early to tell whether shorts will, on net, lose money over the full subsequent period).