Evidence from 2022–2025 shows Notion accelerating rather than suffering “persistent, significant growth headwinds” after Microsoft’s competitive move (Loop) and broader bundling strategy.

Key facts:

• Rapid, sustained revenue growth: Multiple sources estimate Notion’s revenue at about $67M in 2022, $250M in 2023, and $400M in 2024, implying several hundred percent growth in two years. (taptwicedigital.com) In September 2025, Notion reported over $500M in annualized revenue/ARR, confirming that growth has continued at scale, not stalled. (cnbc.com) This is inconsistent with the idea of material, persistent growth headwinds.

• Strong mid‑market and enterprise penetration: Reports state that over 50% of Fortune 500 companies have teams using Notion, and that growth is increasingly driven by large corporate clients. Named enterprise customers include Kaiser Permanente, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Nvidia, and Volvo Cars, and Notion’s COO says the company is “racing to keep up with enterprise demand.” (cnbc.com) This contradicts the claim that Microsoft’s distribution/bundling would materially constrain Notion’s ability to scale into mid‑market and enterprise.

• Healthy valuation for a private SaaS company: Notion’s last disclosed funding round in 2021 valued it at $10B, and there is no evidence of a down‑round or major valuation impairment; the company has not needed new primary capital since. (cnbc.com) With ~$500M ARR by 2025, that implies a roughly 20× ARR private valuation, which is broadly in line with, not obviously below, what high‑growth productivity SaaS companies might command in public markets during favorable conditions. This does not support the prediction that competitive pressure would prevent Notion from achieving a “full, standalone” type of valuation.

• Microsoft competition did not stop adoption: Microsoft announced Loop, a Notion‑like app integrated into Microsoft 365, in late 2021; it became available to organizations in 2023. (cnbc.com) Yet the same period (2023–2025) is when Notion’s revenue and enterprise usage surged, aided by rapid adoption of Notion’s AI features. (cnbc.com) The data shows coexistence and strong Notion growth, not clear evidence that Microsoft’s 80%-as-good bundled product has significantly capped Notion’s trajectory.

• Time horizon has elapsed: The prediction was made in November 2021 and explicitly concerned “the coming years.” We now have roughly four years of post‑prediction data (through 2025), enough to judge whether major, persistent headwinds emerged; they did not.

Because Notion has grown quickly, expanded meaningfully into mid‑market and enterprise, and maintained a robust valuation profile despite Microsoft’s entry, the prediction that Microsoft’s bundled competition would materially constrain Notion’s growth and scaling has not borne out. The most appropriate verdict is “wrong.”