ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 00:13:20Wrong
economy
Over the next few quarters following this September 2024 discussion, U.S. GDP figures will undergo at least a couple of significant downward revisions compared to their initially reported values, contributing to a weaker perceived state of the economy.
we're going to go through a couple of difficult GDP revisions, probably downwardView on YouTube
Explanation

BEA data and subsequent analysis show that U.S. GDP revisions in the quarters after September 2024 were mostly upward or negligible, not “a couple of significant downward revisions” that broadly weakened the growth story.

Key points:

  1. Q3 2024: Real GDP was estimated at 2.8% in both the advance and second estimates, then revised up to 3.1% in the third estimate. (bea.gov)

  2. Q4 2024: Real GDP came in at 2.3% in the advance and second estimates and was revised up to 2.4% in the third estimate. (bea.gov)

  3. Annual revisions for recent years: The 2024 annual update (released Sept. 26, 2024) revised 2019–2023 annual real GDP growth mostly up, not down. The 2025 annual update (released Sept. 25, 2025) explicitly notes that the percent change in real GDP for 2022–2024 was unrevised, meaning no downward reassessment of overall recent growth. (apps.bea.gov)

  4. Q1 2025 (the one clear downward revision): Real GDP for Q1 2025 was initially reported at –0.3% (advance), then –0.2% (second estimate), and later revised down to –0.5% in the third estimate; journalists described this as the economy contracting more than previously thought. (bea.gov) The 2025 annual update then nudged this slightly further down to –0.6%. (bea.gov) This is one quarter with a materially more negative revision.

  5. Q2 2025: Real GDP was revised up repeatedly, from 3.0% (advance) to 3.3% (second) and then to 3.8% (third/annual-update release). (bea.gov)

  6. Net effect on the perceived economy: The 2025 annual-update article emphasizes that average real GDP growth from 2019–2024 is essentially unchanged from prior estimates, and that annual growth rates for 2022–2024 are either unchanged or previously revised up, not down. (apps.bea.gov) The one notable negative surprise is Q1 2025, not “a couple” of significant downward GDP revisions across multiple quarters.

Because only one quarter (Q1 2025) experienced a clearly significant downward GDP revision while surrounding quarters saw upward or flat revisions, Chamath’s prediction of multiple significant downward GDP revisions over the next few quarters—and a generally weaker picture emerging from revisions—did not materialize. Hence the prediction is best classified as wrong.