As of November 30, 2025, it’s too early to determine whether Chamath’s conditional prediction is right or wrong.

1. The conditional hasn’t played out yet

• He conditioned the outcome on the U.S. running budget deficits of about 8% of GDP for 4–6 consecutive years starting around 2024. That would roughly cover 2024–2028/2030.
• Actual and projected deficits so far are very high but below 8%: CBO and related analyses show deficits of about 6.3% of GDP in 2023, an estimated 6.7% in 2024, and around 6.1–6.2% projected for 2025.(americanactionforum.org) Reuters’ report on the finalized FY 2025 budget puts the deficit at about 5.9% of GDP.(reuters.com)
• CBO’s baseline outlook through the 2030s projects deficits generally in the 5–7% of GDP range, rising to roughly 6.9% of GDP by 2034, not a clearly sustained 8% for several straight years—though future policy changes could alter that.(crfb.org)
• Because we are only ~1–2 years into that 4–6 year window, we don’t yet know if the U.S. will actually run 8%-of-GDP deficits for that long.

2. The interest-rate outcome window is also still open

• Chamath’s claim was that if those ~8% deficits persist for 4–6 years, then the 10‑year Treasury yield will be around 7–8% during that period.
• So far, the 10‑year yield has stayed much lower. Fed data and market trackers put the 10‑year around 4.0–4.1% in late November 2025,(tradingeconomics.com) and analysis from T. Rowe Price notes a recent peak near 4.79% on January 14, 2025, still well below 7–8%.(troweprice.com)
• However, the prediction is about yields sometime during the full 4–6 year span, not specifically by 2025. Future rate spikes (or policy shifts) between 2026–2030 could still move the 10‑year into his 7–8% range.

Because:

• we do not yet know whether the U.S. will actually maintain ~8% of GDP deficits for 4–6 years, and
• we still have several years in the stated window during which the 10‑year yield could, in principle, reach 7–8%,

there isn’t enough information yet to classify the prediction as right or wrong. The appropriate status as of now is: inconclusive (too early to tell).