Summary of the prediction
Chamath (June 20, 2020) predicted that from that point forward:

1. “There is not a single country government that can tolerate future lockdowns” and populations would revolt rather than accept further broad lockdowns or shelter‑in‑place orders.
2. Therefore, instead of renewed broad lockdowns, we would see a “start and stop” world of localized closures (e.g., some Apple stores closing temporarily) “for the foreseeable future.”
3. “It’s just not possible to ask people now to go back into any form of quarantine or shelter in place. I just don’t think they’ll do it.”

Key interpretation points

• Timeframe: “for the foreseeable future” starting June 2020 – in practical terms, we assess against what happened in late 2020 and 2021, when further COVID waves hit.
• Claim is universal: “not a single country government” can do future lockdowns / quarantine / shelter in place with compliance.
• He’s contrasting nationwide / broad lockdowns vs. only localized, start‑stop measures.

What actually happened

1. Europe re‑imposed mass/national lockdowns in late 2020 with substantial compliance

   • The UK announced a second national lockdown for England from 5 November to 2 December 2020, closing non‑essential retail, hospitality (except takeaway), and restricting people to staying at home except for limited reasons.
   • France imposed a second nationwide lockdown starting 30 October 2020, requiring people to stay at home except for essential reasons and closing non‑essential businesses.
   • Germany introduced a nationwide “lockdown light” in November 2020, followed by stricter nationwide measures (including closure of most retail, schools in many states, and stay‑at‑home provisions) in December 2020.
     These were clearly government‑ordered, national‑scale lockdowns, not just scattered local closures.

2. Asia also had renewed strict, sometimes national, stay‑home orders

   • India, after lifting its first nationwide lockdown in mid‑2020, implemented various state‑wide and city‑wide lockdowns later in 2020 and 2021 (e.g., in Maharashtra during the 2021 Delta wave), with stay‑at‑home orders and broad business closures backed by police enforcement.
   • Multiple Asia‑Pacific countries (e.g., Malaysia, the Philippines) re‑imposed nationwide or near‑nationwide movement control orders with stay‑home rules and closure of most non‑essential sectors during later waves.
     These were again broad, government‑imposed lockdowns, not just localized, company‑level “start and stop” adjustments.

3. Compliance remained significant, even if imperfect

   • In these second and third waves, governments did face more public frustration, protests and “pandemic fatigue,” but large segments of the population did in fact comply with staying home, school closures, and business shutdowns, as evidenced by mobility data and mainstream reporting (e.g., reduced public transport use and retail footfall during the second UK and French lockdowns).
   • There were protests in various countries, but they did not prevent governments from imposing or sustaining these renewed lockdowns for weeks to months.

4. The world did not remain purely in a localized ‘start–stop’ corporate‑driven mode

   • While there were localized measures (city‑level closures, office outbreaks, Apple/retail store re‑closures), those co‑existed with broad, renewed lockdowns at regional or national level in many countries through late 2020 and into 2021.
   • In other words, the actual pattern was: governments did re‑impose sweeping lockdowns and shelter‑in‑place rules; it was not limited to the firm‑level “Apple closes some stores for a few weeks” dynamic he described.

Why the prediction is judged wrong

Chamath’s prediction contained two strong components:

1. "Not a single country government" can do future lockdowns / shelter in place
   This is directly falsified by the UK, France, Germany, and many others re‑imposing national or large‑scale stay‑at‑home orders and business closures from late 2020 onward, with large‑scale (if imperfect) public compliance.

2. We’ll instead be stuck only in localized ‘start and stop’ closures
   That dynamic did happen at the margin (local and corporate closures), but it did not replace broad government lockdowns; both occurred. The prediction, as phrased, rules out broad lockdowns, which did in fact occur multiple times.

Because

• the claim was universal (“not a single country government”), and
• multiple clear counterexamples occurred within months, and
• enough time has passed to evaluate “for the foreseeable future,”

the prediction is best classified as wrong.